[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302229
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jan 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the
area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central
Caribbean through Tue. The combination of the strong high and the
low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force winds
near Colombia tonight and again Sun night. Seas are expected to
increase to 12-14 ft north of Colombia tonight into Sun. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east
of northern Florida late Sun night, then progress to a line from
Bermuda to the Windward Passage Tue. Areas of gale-force
southerly winds can be expected ahead of this front north of 27N
Sunday night through Tue. Seas associated with the front will
quickly build over the forecast waters Mon through Tue, with seas
to 15 kt expected. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia, Africa near 06N10W to 05N18W where it transitions to the
ITCZ and continues to 02N33W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-08N between 05W-
25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow associated with high
pressure centered over North Carolina spans the entire Gulf of
Mexico. Seas range from 3-6 ft.

High pressure will shift E through tonight. Fresh to strong S
winds over the western Gulf will diminish tonight as a strong cold
front approaches the Texas coast. The front will move off the
Texas coast early Sun, and push across the basin through Mon.
Fresh to strong northerly winds in the wake of the front will
prevail across the region Sun night through early Tue. Strong to
near gale force southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf
Wed and continue through Thu night, along with building seas,
ahead of the next cold front that may approach the Texas coast
late Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia.

Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will cause potential
coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing shorelines
of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola, with sea heights
approaching 20 feet in some areas.

The stationary front over the NE basin has dissipated, as has
associated shower activity. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail
through the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, deep- layer dry air is
maintaining generally fair weather conditions with moderate to
fresh trades across the rest of the basin.

Strong high pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tue. Large long-
period northerly swell will propagate through the northeastern
Caribbean passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic waters during
the rest of this weekend and into early next week, with the
largest swell expected tonight through Sun night. A cold front is
forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula early
on Mon, then stall as it reaches from the Dominican Republic to
the central Caribbean by early Wed. It will gradually weaken and
dissipate by early Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the west Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front has stalled from 32N42W to Puerto Rico. N of 28N,
there is some strong W winds behind the front, with areas to the
south having mainly moderate N winds. Showers previously
associated with the front have dissipated. A broad are of very
large swell is bringing seas in excess of 12 ft for areas N of 20N
and E of 75W, with heights peaking over 20 ft toward 30N from
Bermuda to just E of the stationary front. Elsewhere, high
pressure centered S of the Azores is dominating the eastern
Atlantic, bringing moderate to fresh trades S of 20N. High
pressure centered over North Carolina is bringing light to gentle
E winds N of the Bahamas and offshore Florida.

The stationary front over the far SE waters will weaken and
gradually dissipate through early Mon. Large long-period northerly
swell east and northeast of the Bahamas will subside a little
through Mon. Another strong cold front will move east of northern
Florida late Sun night, reach from near 26N65W to the Dominican
Republic by early Wed and stall. It will gradually weaken and
dissipate by early Thu. Northerly long-period swell associated
with the front will propagate through the forecast waters Mon
through mid-week, while combining with residual swell. The swell
will be mainly confined to the eastern section of the area Thu and
Thu night.

$$
KONARIK
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net