[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280918
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jan 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front has moved off the SE
U.S. coast early this morning while the associated area of low
pressure is beginning to rapidly intensify north of the forecast
area. Gale force winds as high as 45 kt and extremely large seas,
up to around 30 ft on Fri near 31N55W, are expected with this
system as it moves eastward across the Atlantic through Fri,
mainly north of 27N. Gales have begun north of 27N and west of the
front and will spread east through the end of the week. The gales
will exit the area north of 31N by Fri evening. Seas are expected
to exceed 20 ft north of 27N between 40W-74W, beginning this
afternoon near 64W-74W and progressing eastward through Sat.
Seas should subside by Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure will build north of the
area in the wake of a strong cold front by the end of the week
through the upcoming weekend. The combination of the building high
pressure and low pressure over northern Colombia will support
pulsing gale force winds north of the coast of Colombia Fri night
and again Sat night. Winds will be near gale force tonight. Seas
will build to around 12 ft during the strongest winds.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extending from near
Cedar Key, Florida to the central Gulf near 24N90W to the SW Gulf
near 18N94W will exit the basin by this evening. Gale-force will
persist over the SW Gulf through early this evening. Winds and
seas will diminish tonight through Fri, with peak seas to around
11 ft today. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 04N18W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N18W to 01N40W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Widely scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 10N
between 30W and 58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
Gale Warning in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from near Cedar Key, Florida to the central
Gulf near 24N90W to the SW Gulf near 18N94W. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are noted behind the front outside of the gales in
the southwest Gulf, with 6-10 ft seas. Ahead of the front, light
to gentle flow and seas of 3 ft or less prevail. Some dense fog
with reduced visibilities has been occurring within the southwest
Florida coastal waters, however the front is approaching that
area and the fog will dissipate. An earlier thin, yet intense line
of convection has all but dissipated with scattered showers still
possible within 45-90 nm either side of the front.

The cold front will exit the basin by this evening. Winds and
seas will diminish tonight through Fri. Return S winds should
begin building over W Gulf on Fri ahead of the next cold front
moving off the Texas coast Sun. The front will move eastward
across the basin and exit Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea north of the coast
of Colombia.

The remnants of a stationary front extending from the Tropical N
Atlantic to near 17N57W continue to wash out with isolated to
scattered showers leftover. Earlier scatterometer data showed
moderate to fresh easterly trades across the Caribbean, except
fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean, strongest near the
coast of Colombia, and mainly moderate in the northwest
Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean,
except 7-11 ft in the south-central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the
northwest Caribbean.

A cold front will move across the NW Caribbean later today
through Fri night. Behind the front, fresh to strong NE winds can
be expected over the NW Caribbean waters through Sat and over the
Atlantic passages from Fri afternoon through Sun. N swell will
propagate into the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic
waters through the weekend, with the largest swell expected Sun
and Sun night. The next cold front may approach the NW Caribbean
on Mon into Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning
in effect for the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic.

West of 65W, high pressure of 1019 mb is located near 25N65W with
a ridge axis extending to the upper Florida Keys ahead of a cold
front discussed above. Gentle anticyclonic winds are under the
ridge between 22N-26N, with moderate to fresh winds noted
elsewhere away from the incoming cold front. Seas are mainly 3-6
ft in a mix of old swells. Scattered showers are occurring near
the cold front with any deeper convection confined to well north
of the area where the best upper level dynamics are.

For the forecast west of 65W, the ridge will weaken as the strong
cold front moves east. The strong cold front will move quickly
while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the
forecast area. The front will stretch from 31N69W to western Cuba
by this afternoon, and from 31N59W to eastern Cuba by tonight.
Strong gale force winds and very large seas are expected with this
system through tonight, mainly N of 27N. Winds will diminish Fri
and seas should subside by Sun. The next cold front may move off
the SE U.S.coast early Mon with fresh to strong winds off the
Florida coast.

East of 65W, a stationary front extends from near 28N65W to east
of the northern Leeward Islands near 17N60W. A ridge axis extends
from the 1019 mb high pressure near 25N65W to 23N50W to 29N35W.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail within 2-3 degrees of the ridge
axis. A 984 mb low pressure system is well north of the area near
38N46W. This low extends a cold front to along 32N. Fresh to
strong winds are occurring north of about 29N between 40W-60W,
along with seas of 10-14 ft in mixed northerly swell. Moderate to
fresh trades dominate the waters south of 20N, while seas of 7-10
ft dominate the waters south of 29N.

$$
Lewitsky
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