[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jan 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

West Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the
SE U.S. coast tonight while the associated low pressure rapidly
intensifies north of the forecast area. Gale force winds as high
as 45 kt and extremely large seas, up to around 30 ft on Fri near
31N55W, are expected with this system as it moves eastward across
the Atlantic through Fri, mainly north of 27N. Gales will first
begin late tonight just east of northern Florida. By Thu evening,
the gales will be occurring north of 27N between 57W-73W. The
gales will exit the area north of 31N by Fri evening. Seas are
expected to exceed 20 ft north of 27N between 40W-74W, beginning
Thu afternoon near 64W-74W and progressing eastward through
Saturday. Seas should subside by Sun. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front from Florida to just
south of Tampico, Mexico will quickly move southeastward across
the basin through Thu. Gale force winds will continue across the
west central Gulf through tonight with gales developing over SW
Gulf tonight through Thu. Winds and seas will diminish below gale
force Thu night, and continue diminishing on Fri. Seas will peak
around 8-12 ft during this event. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
06N10W to 05N14W. The ITCZ then extends from 05N14W to 02N29W to
the coast of Brazil near 04N48W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from the equator to 06N between 30W to 49W and a cluster of
scattered moderate to strong south of the mouth of the Amazon
River.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
Gale Warning in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico.

As of 0300 UTC, the cold front extends from south of Cedar Key,
Florida to 22N92W to 18N94W near Veracruz, Mexico. Ahead of the
cold front, a pre-frontal trough extends from north-central FL
to 25N86W. A line of showers and tstorms is noted within 120nm of
the pre-frontal trough from 20N-27N and east of 88W. Gale force
winds prevail west of the front and south of 25N, with fresh to
near gale winds elsewhere west of the front. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail east of the front. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over
the western Gulf, with 4-6 ft seas over the central Gulf. Seas
are in the 1-3 ft range over the eastern Gulf as well as the SW
Gulf.

The cold front will exit the basin by Thu afternoon. Gale-force
winds will continue across the w-central Gulf through tonight with
gales over SW Gulf through Thu evening. Winds and seas diminish
on Fri. Return S winds should begin building over W Gulf on Fri
ahead of the next cold front moving off the Texas coast Sun. The
front will move eastward across the basin and exit Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the Tropical N Atlantic to near
17N57W where it begins to weaken to near 16N66W in the NE Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh easterly trades prevail across the eastern and
central Caribbean with the exception of fresh to strong south of
14N between 70W-78W near the coast of Colombia. Meanwhile, gentle
to moderate winds are noted across the western Caribbean. Seas
are in the 8-12 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft
elsewhere.

The stationary front across the far NE Caribbean will linger into
Thu. Fresh to strong winds are expected to continue across the
south-central Caribbean through the end of the week. Gale
conditions are possible Fri night and Sat night north of Colombia.
A cold front will move across the NW Caribbean on Thu. Behind the
front, fresh to strong NE winds can be expected over the NW
Caribbean waters through Sat and over the Atlantic passages from
Fri afternoon through Sun. N swell will propagate into the NE
Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the
weekend, with the largest swell expected Sun and Sun night. The
next cold front may approach the NW Caribbean on Mon into Mon
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning
in effect for the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic.

West of 65W: A weak ridge of high pressure extends across the
southern portion of the forecast waters, anchored by high
pressure of 1021 mb centered near 24N61W. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail on either side of the ridge, with light to gentle
winds along the ridge. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range east of 70W,
and 3-5 ft elsewhere west of 70W.

For the forecast, the ridge east of Florida will weaken as a
strong cold front approaches from the west. The strong cold
front will move off northern Florida while the associated low
pressure rapidly intensifies north of the forecast area. The front
will stretch from 30N67W to western Cuba by Thu afternoon, and
from 30N57W to eastern Cuba by Thu night. Strong gale force winds
and very large seas are expected with this system tonight through
Thu night, mainly N of 27N. Winds will diminish Fri and seas
should subside by Sun. The next cold front may move off the SE
U.S.coast early Mon with fresh to strong winds off the Florida
coast.

East of 65W, a stationary front extends from near 30N65W to east
of the northern Leeward Islands near 17N57W, then weakens to near
16N66W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail east of 65W and N of 23N,
with moderate to fresh winds south of 23N to 06N. A 1021 mb high
pressure is analyzed near 24N61W. Seas of 12-14 ft prevail N of
29N between 30W and 45W. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range elsewhere
north of 20N, and 5-8 ft south of 20N.

$$
Torres
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