[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front moved off the SE U.S.
coast early this morning while the associated area of low
pressure is rapidly intensifying north of the forecast area.
Gale force winds as high as 45 kt and extremely large seas are
expected with this system as it moves eastward across the
Atlantic through Fri, mainly north of 27N. Gales ongoing north
of 27N and west of the front will spread east through the end
of the week. The gales will exit the area north of 31N by Fri
evening. Seas are expected to exceed 20 ft north of 27N between
40W-74W, beginning this afternoon near 64W-74W and progressing
eastward through Sat. Seas should subside by Sun. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure will build north
of the area in the wake of a strong cold front by the end
of the week through the weekend. The combination of the
building high and the low pressure over northern Colombia
will support pulsing gale force winds north of the coast of
Colombia Fri night and again on Sat night. Winds will be
strong to near gale force tonight. Seas will build to around
12 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extending from the
southwest coast of Florida near 24N81W to the central Gulf
near 23N90W to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico near 18N94W will exit
the basin by this evening. Gale force winds will persist over
the extreme SW Gulf through early this evening. Winds and
seas will diminish tonight through Fri, with peak seas to
around 13 ft today. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near
06N11W to 04N16W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N16W to
02N45W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along
the ITCZ from the equator to 05N between 31W and 50W.
An additional area of scattered moderate convection is
noted south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 06N between
05W and 13W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details
on a Gale Warning in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from the southwest coast of Florida
near 24N81W to the central Gulf near 23N90W to
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico near 18N94W. Outside of the gales,
fresh to strong N-NE winds are noted behind the front
in the central and W Gulf, with 6-10 ft seas.

The cold front will exit the basin late this afternoon.
Gale conditions over waters adjacent to Veracruz, Mexico
will continue through early this evening. Winds and seas
will diminish tonight through Fri. Return S winds should
begin building over W Gulf on Fri ahead of the next cold
front moving off the Texas coast Sun. The front will move
eastward across the basin and exit Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a
Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea
north of the coast of Colombia.

The latest scatterometer data shows fresh to strong trades
in the south-central Caribbean, with the highest winds off
the coast of Colombia. Seas of 7-11 ft accompany these winds.
Across the rest of the basin, moderate to fresh trades prevail
with mainly moderate trades in the far eastern Caribbean.
Seas are 3-6 ft.

Fresh to strong winds will continue across the
south-central Caribbean through Mon night, with gale conditions
developing over waters adjacent to NW Colombia Fri and
Sat nights. A cold front will move across the NW Caribbean
later today through Fri night. Fresh to strong NE winds
will follow the front and affect the NW Caribbean waters
through Sat and the Windward and Mona passages from early
Fri through Sun. N swell will propagate into the NE Caribbean
passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the weekend,
with the largest swell expected Sun and Sun night. A second
cold front is forecast to approach the NW Caribbean Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning
in effect for the western and central Atlantic.

West of 60W, the cold front mentioned in the Special Features
section extends from 31N73W to southeast Florida near
26N80W and continues into the Gulf. Strong winds are noted
ahead of the front north of 27N. A high pressure of
1020 mb is located near 24N61W with a ridge axis extending
to the Turks and Caicos ahead of a cold front discussed
above. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are under
the ridge between 18N-23N, with moderate to fresh winds
noted elsewhere away from the incoming cold front.
Seas are mainly 3-6 ft in a mix of old swells.

For the forecast west of 60W, the front will move quickly
eastward while the associated low pressure rapidly
intensifies north of the forecast area. The front will
stretch from 31N69W to western Cuba by this afternoon, and
from 31N59W to eastern Cuba by tonight. Gale conditions
associated with this system are expected through early Fri,
mainly N of 27N. Winds will diminish Fri and seas should
subside by Sun. The next cold front may move off the SE
U.S.coast early Mon with fresh to strong winds off the
Florida coast.

East of 60W, a stationary front extends from near 31N31W
to east of the northern Leeward Islands near 17N60W. A 972 mb
low pressure system well north of the area near 40N42W extends
a cold front along 32N. Mainly fresh to locally strong winds
are occurring north of 28N west of 40W. Moderate to fresh
trades dominate areas south of 28N, with 7-11 ft seas in
northerly swell.

$$
Mora/Mahoney
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