[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250515
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jan 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure located
north of the Caribbean Sea and low pressure over Colombia and
Panama will continue to lead to northeast to east winds to pulse
to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia during
the overnight and early morning hours through at least Wed. Wave
heights generated by these winds are forecast to be in the range
of 10-13 ft, highest around daybreak each day. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N10W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 02N30W to
01S44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-05N between
15W-30W, and from 02N to 08N between 32W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from
St. Petersburg Florida to Apalachicola Florida. Low stratus
clouds and areas of sea fog is occurring along coastal portions
of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. The fog is likely to
persist across the Northwest Gulf coast through early Mon
morning, fog is also likely to develop early Thu morning from
Tampa Bay through the Big Bend of Florida.

The warm front over the NE Gulf coastal waters will lift into
Florida tonight. Fog will continue into Mon off the coast of
Texas. Low pressure trough along the Mexican coast will bring
some strong S winds tonight into Mon. A weak cold front will
move off the TX coast Monday night, then stall in the NW Gulf
Tue. A reinforcing cold front will reach the stationary front
by Tue night, and the combined front will move E through the
basin through Thu. Behind the front strong N winds will prevail,
with gales developing in portions of the west-central and SW Gulf
Wed through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details
about the Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea.

Elsewhere, latest ASCAT and buoy data indicate that mainly
moderate to fresh trades are present, with the exceptions of
fresh to strong trades over the southern part of the central
Caribbean and gentle winds across the eastern Caribbean.
Stable atmospheric conditions present throughout, both aloft
and at the low-levels, is allowing for only small patches of
shallow moisture in the form of scattered to broken low clouds
to exist across the basin. These clouds are quickly moving
westward and some may be attendant by brief passing isolated
showers.

As for the forecast: high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea
will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the
south-central Caribbean, with winds blowing hard to gale forces
during the overnight and early morning hours off Colombia through
at least Wed night. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail
elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras
Mon night through Tue night. N swell will propagate into the
Tropical North Atlantic waters late Mon into Thu night. A cold
front will approach the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola late Mon, then stall over the area into mid-week.
Another cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Thu followed by
fresh to strong northerly winds into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic cold front is analyzed from near 30N44W to
23N59W to 23N69W. It continues as stationary from 23N69W to
South Florida. A secondary front extends from 30N49W to 27N59W.
A pre-frontal trough is from 30N40W to 19N61W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen along and within 90 nm ahead of the
main cold front, north of 28N between 36W-43W. Broken to overcast
low and mid-level clouds, with possible isolated light showers
are elsewhere within 60 nm of the main cold front and stationary
front. Fresh to strong southwest winds are within 260 nm east of
the pre-frontal trough, north of 24N. Strong west to northwest
winds are located to the northwest of the secondary front, mainly
north of 29N between the secondary front and 66W. Strong to near
gale force winds will persist in this area through Monday morning
from 29N- 31N between 54W-65W, with gale force winds possible
north of 31N. Surface ridging covers the E Atlantic, anchored by a
1024 mb high pressure near 31N16W.

As for the forecast: The stationary front near the NW Bahamas
will be overtaken by a reinforcing surge of high pressure tonight,
then move south to along 20N by Mon morning, and into the Greater
Antilles Mon night. Southerly flow will increase across the
waters E of north-central Florida Mon into Tue. Low pressure near
Bermuda will bring strong W winds to the NE waters Tue night
through Wed. A stronger cold front will move off the SE U.S coast
Wed night while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies N
of the area through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very
large seas are expected with this system, mainly N of 27N.

$$
MTorres
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