[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jan 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure located
north of the Caribbean Sea and low pressure over Colombia and
Panama will continue to lead to northeast to east winds to pulse
to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia during
the overnight and early morning hours through at least Wed. Wave
heights generated by these winds are forecast to be in the range
of 10-14 ft, highest around daybreak each day. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N09W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 02N41W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-03N between 08W-14W,
and from 03N to 06N between 33W and 42W. Scattered showers are
elsewhere within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 16W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from Naples
Florida to Biloxi Mississippi. Low stratus clouds and dense sea
fog is occurring along coastal portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi. The fog is likely to persist through early Mon
morning there, with fog also possible along the upper Texas coast
from Galveston Bay eastward. Fog is also likely to develop early
Thu morning from Tampa Bay through the Big Bend of Florida.

The warm front will lift N into Florida tonight. A low pressure
trough along the Mexican coast will bring some strong S winds
tonight into Mon. A weak cold front will move off the TX coast
Monday night, then stall in the NW Gulf Tue. A reinforcing cold
front will reach the stationary front by Tue night, and the
combined front will move E through the basin through Thu. Behind
the front, strong N winds will prevail, with gales developing in
portions of the SW Gulf Wed night and Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Pulsing winds to gale force are expected during the overnight and
early morning hours near the coast of Colombia through the next
few days. Please, refer to the Special Features section above
for details.

Elsewhere, latest ASCAT and buoy data indicate that mainly
moderate to fresh trades are present, with the exceptions of
fresh to strong trades over the southern part of the central
Caribbean and gentle to moderate trades over the eastern and
northwestern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are over
the Windward Passage. Stable atmospheric conditions present
throughout, both aloft and at the low-levels, is allowing for only
small patches of rather shallow moisture in the form of scattered
to broken low clouds to exist across the basin. These clouds are
quickly moving westward and some may be attendant by brief passing
isolated showers.

As for the forecast: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will
continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central
Caribbean, with winds blowing hard to gale force during the
overnight and early morning hours off Colombia through at least
Wed night. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere,
pulsing to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras Mon night
through Tue night. N swell will propagate into the Tropical North
Atlantic waters late Mon into Thu night. A cold front will
approach the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late
Mon, then stall over the area into mid-week. Another cold front
will reach the Yucatan Channel Thu followed by fresh to strong
northerly winds into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic cold front is analyzed from near 32N43W to
24N62. It continues as stationary from 24N62W to South Florida. A
secondary front extends from 32N49W to 28N60W. A pre-frontal
trough is from 31N41W to 19N61W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen along and within 90 nm ahead of the main cold front, north
of 28N between 39W-46W. Broken to overcast low and mid-level
clouds, with possible isolated light showers are elsewhere within
60 nm of the main cold front and stationary front. Fresh to
strong southwest winds are within 180 nm east of the pre-frontal
trough, north of 26N. Strong west to northwest winds are located
to the northwest of the secondary front, mainly north of 29N
between the secondary front and 66W. Strong to near gale force
winds will persist in this area through Monday morning from 29N-
31N between 54W-65W, with gale force winds possible north of 31N.
Surface ridging covers the E Atlantic, anchored by a 1023 mb high
pressure near 31N18W.

As for the forecast: The stationary front from 24N62W to South
Florida will be overtaken by a reinforcing surge of high pressure
tonight, then move south to along 20N by Mon morning, and into the
Greater Antilles Mon night. Southerly flow will increase across
the waters E of north-central Florida Mon into Tue. Low pressure
near Bermuda will bring strong W winds to the waters east of 72W
and north of 28N Tue night through Wed. A stronger cold front will
move off the SE U.S coast Wed night while the associated low
pressure rapidly intensifies N of the area through the end of the
week. Gale force winds and very large seas are expected with this
system between 60W-80W, mainly N of 27N, on Thu into Thu night.
The resulting swell from this storm could produce seas over 25 ft
north of 27N between 73W and 47W as it propagates from west to
east Thu night through Sat morning. The 20 plus foot seas are
expected east of 77W beginning Thu, and could reach as far south
as 25N as it propagates eastward across the Atlantic.

$$
Hagen
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