[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jan 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located north of the Caribbean
Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to
support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia through at least early Wed morning. Wave heights
generated by these winds are forecast to be in the range of 10-13
ft, mainly around daybreak each day. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 04N18W. The ITCZ axis continues from 04N18W to 03N30W to
00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-05N between
10W-30W, and from 00N-06N between 30W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a ridge over the Gulf waters and
lower pressures over Mexico supports fresh to strong southerly
winds across the western Gulf, particularly from 23N to 28N W of
94W. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of these
winds, forecast to persist today. Moderate to locally fresh SE
winds are noted across the remainder of the western Gulf, with
gentle to moderate E-SE winds elsewhere. A surface trough is
analyzed near the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula producing
mainly moderate winds. High clouds are moving from central Mexico
into the Gulf region due to strong southwesterly flow aloft.

A weak cold front will move off the coast of Texas this evening,
then stall in the NW Gulf through Tue. A reinforcing cold front
will reach the stationary front by Tue night, and the combined
front will move E across the basin through Thu. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will follow the front, with gales developing over
the west-central part of the Gulf on Wed, and over the SW Gulf
late Wed through Thu. Seas are forecast to build up to 13 or 14
ft with the strongest winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Pulsing winds to gale force are expected during the overnight and
early morning hours near the coast of Colombia. Please, refer to
the Special Features section above for details.

Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail, pulsing
to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Tue
night, with seas building to 6-8 ft by Tue night. Fresh to locally
strong winds are also expected in the Windward passage and south
of Dominican Republic tonight. Shallow moisture embedded in the
trade winds flow is seen across the basin producing isolated to
scattered passing showers. Patches of low level moisture with
possible light showers, carried by the trade winds, are affecting
most of Honduras and north-central Nicaragua.

Northerly swell will impact the NE Caribbean passages on Tue with
additional pulses of N swell reaching the same area Thu night into
Fri. Northerly swell will also propagate into the Tropical North
Atlantic waters during the next several days.

A reinforcing cold front, currently located along 22N W of 60W
will approach the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
late today, reaching these islands on Tue, bringing an increase
in the likelihood of rain. Another cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean on Thu followed by fresh to strong northerly winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A reinforcing cold front extends across the central and western
Atlantic from 31N43W to 26N50W to 23N60W to 23N73W where it
becomes stationary to the NW Bahamas. Fresh to strong W to NW with
locally higher gusts are observed in recent satellite derived
wind data N of 28N and W of the front to near 66W. Doppler radar
shows a few showers associated with the front between the NW
Bahamas and the coast of Florida. This system is forecast to move
southward reaching 20N this evening, and the Greater Antilles on
Tue. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N41 to 19N60W. Scattered
showers are near the trough axis N of 26N. Patches of low level
moisture in a band-like are noted near the southern end of the
trough axis crossing the northern Leeward Islands into the NE
Caribbean.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the
influence of a ridge, anchored by a high pressure of 1023 mb
located midway between the Madeira and the Canary Islands.
Moderate to fresh winds are along the southern periphery of the
ridge.

As for the forecast: Southerly flow will increase across the
waters E of north-central Florida today and tonight. Low pressure
crossing N of Bermuda will bring fresh to strong W winds to the
waters N of 30N between 60W-70W on Tue. A stronger cold front will
move off the SE U.S coast Wed night while the associated low
pressure rapidly intensifies N of the forecast region. Gale force
winds and very large seas are expected with this system, across
the Atlantic waters mainly N of 27N. This front is forecast to
move across South Florida on Thu, with the main impact in the
marine conditions.

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net