[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
07N11W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W, to 03N32W to
the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 00N-07N between 15W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gale warning in the central Gulf has ended. A 1023 mb high
centered in northeast Mexico is allowing for higher pressure to
spread over the western Gulf. As of 1525 UTC, scatterometer data
revealed moderate to fresh NW winds in the northwestern Gulf
becoming fresh to strong in the eastern Gulf in the wake of a
cold  front that passed through the area this morning. Flow
turns to fresh to strong northerly winds in the extreme
southwestern Gulf and within the Bay of Campeche. No significant
precipitation is noted in the basin. Seas in the northeastern
area of the basin are reaching up to 10 ft.

High pressure will continue to build across the basin. Seas
associated with this morning's gale warning will gradually
subside.  The high pressure will support generally tranquil
marine conditions across the basin Sun into Mon, then will shift
east of the area early next week. This pattern will support
increased winds and seas over the northwest Gulf Mon and Tue
between the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over
Texas, before diminishing through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The cold front moving eastward from the Straits of Florida to
the  Yucatan channel has overtaken the dissipating stationary
front. Scattered showers are within 90 nm east of the boundary,
noted off the coast Honduras and reaching western Cuba. Gentle
to moderate N winds are noted over the northwest Caribbean,
although winds are likely increasing near the Yucatan Channel.
Moderate to fresh trades dominate the eastern half of the basin
with seas ranging from 5-7 ft.

The cold front extending across the northwest Caribbean will
stall  from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then
dissipate through Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the
front north of the region will support the expansion of fresh to
strong trade winds and building seas from off Colombia to cover
most of the south-central and southwest Caribbean from Sun
through Wed night. These winds may pulse to gale force mainly at
night off Colombia starting Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 55W: a cold front stretching from 32N73W to the northern
Bahamas to the northwest Caribbean is producing strong west
winds  and 7-9 ft seas behind the boundary. Fresh to strong S-SW
wind is east of the boundary along with scattered moderate
convection that is noted north of 26N. Weak ridging centered
near 35N58W is maintaining gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from
Bermuda  to eastern Cuba tonight, before stalling from 26N65W to
eastern Cuba by late Sun and dissipating early Mon. Another cold
front will move into the waters between northeast Florida and
Bermuda late Sun, and also stall from 26N65W to eastern Cuba by
Mon night and early Tue, before dissipating through mid week.

Farther east, a cold front reaches from 32N44W to 24N55W. Ridging
dominates the eastern Atlantic north of 20N, supporting fresh
trade winds and 8 to 11 ft seas in mainly NE swell south of 20N.

$$
Mora
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