[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162137
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong W-NW winds have arrived
behind a strong cold front and reinforcing trough in the SW N
Atlantic, with frequent gusts N of 28N. These winds will persist
into early Sun. Seas will be up to 13-15 ft along 31N during this
event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N33W to near
the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N-06N between 35W-51W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-05N between
24W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high centered along the coast at the the Mexico/Texas
border continues to build in across the basin behind a now
departed cold front. This high has a ridge axis extending
southward to the western Bay of Campeche and to the east-
southeast to the Straits of Florida. Morning scatterometer data
showed fresh to strong W-NW flow in the eastern Gulf, with
moderate to fresh NW-N flow in the central Gulf, and gentle to
moderate flow in the western Gulf closest to the high center.
Lingering large seas of 7-10 ft dominate the waters east of 92W,
with seas of 3-6 ft west of 92W.

Fresh to strong NW winds over the north-central and northeast
Gulf will diminish to 20 kt or less tonight. High pressure will
dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days. Fresh to
strong southerly return flow will set-up over the northwest Gulf
Mon night into Tue between the high pressure and lower pressure
farther west over Texas. These winds will diminish some by the
middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the SW N Atlantic to across central Cuba
to along the north coast of Honduras and Gulf of Honduras.
Scattered showers are possible east of the boundary. Moderate to
fresh N-NE winds follow the front along with 5-7 ft, locally to 8
ft near the Yucatan Channel. Morning scatterometer data showed
mainly moderate to fresh trades east of the front, except gentle
winds within 120 nm southeast of the front. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft
east of the front, except locally to 8 ft northwest of the coast
of Colombia, and 2-4 ft within 120 nm southeast of the front.

The cold front extending from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras will stall tonight, then dissipate through Mon. High
pressure building in the wake of the front north of the region
will bring increasing winds and building seas over the south-
central Caribbean, with gale conditions possible near the coast of
Colombia at night starting Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

There is a gale warning in effect for the SW N Atlantic basin.
Please see Special Features section for more details.

West of 55W, a cold front extends from 32N71W to across the
central Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted north of 22N and east of the front.
Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong southerly flow N
of 24N within 90-180 nm ahead of the front, with gentle to
moderate southerly flow elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft, except
4-7 ft across the area of fresh to strong winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
Bermuda to eastern Cuba tonight before stalling from 27N65W to
eastern Cuba on Sun, dissipating on Mon. A reinforcing cold front
will move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda
late Sun, and stall from 27N65W to eastern Cuba by Mon night into
Tue. The front will then reach from from 23N65W to eastern Cuba
on Wed while gradually dissipating. Another cold front is forecast
to reach the north waters by Wed night.

East of 55W, a cold front reaches from 32N40W to 26N53W. Scattered
showers are possible ahead of this front. A 1031 mb high centered
west of Portugal near 39N15W supports a ridge which reaches
southwest-west across the remainder of the waters. Moderate to
fresh trades and seas of 7-10 ft dominate the waters S of 22N,
locally strong near 07N, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
and 4-7 ft seas in mixed swell elsewhere.

$$
Lewitsky
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