[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is currently moving
through the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel, with
reinforcing cold air moving into the northern Gulf. Strong to near
gale force winds are mixing to the surface, as noted in recent
buoy and platform observations and scatterometer data. Buoy data
also indicates there are frequent gusts to gale force over the
north central Gulf, and a gale warning is in effect through the
morning for the north central and northeast Gulf. Seas are
building to as high as 11 ft in the north central and northeast
Gulf as well.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, to 04N30W
to 05N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N
between 10W and 13W. Scattered moderate convection is also
observed from 01N to 04N between 20W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on the
gale warning in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. A ridge extends
from high pressure over northeast Mexico to the central Gulf.
Fresh NE winds are noted over the central and eastern Gulf with 5
to 7 ft seas. Fresh N winds are evident in scatterometer data
over the southwest Gulf, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate N to
NE winds are noted over the west central Gulf near the ridge axis,
with 3 to 5 ft seas. No shower or thunderstorm activity is noted.

For the forecast, winds over the north central and northeast Gulf
will diminish by late afternoon today as high pressure builds
over the western Gulf behind the front. Associated seas will
subside this evening. The high pressure will support generally
tranquil marine conditions across the basin Sun into Mon, then
will shift east of the area early next week. This pattern will
support increased winds and seas over the northwest Gulf Mon and
Tue between the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over
Texas, before diminishing through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front from western Cuba to northern Belize is
dissipating ahead of a cold front moving through the Yucatan
Channel. Radar from Grand Cayman indicates a few showers are
ongoing along these boundaries over the northwest Caribbean,
moving to the northeast. Gentle to moderate N winds are noted over
the northwest Caribbean, although winds are likely increasing
near the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the northwest
Caribbean. Farther south, strong trade winds are active off the
coast of Colombia, mainly between Cartagena and Barranquilla, with
8 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
are noted elsewhere across the Caribbean. Regional radar shows
scattered showers moving quickly westward in the trade flow across
the ABC Islands, as well as a few showers in the Windward Islands
and Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, the cold front entering the Yucatan Channel
will weaken as it moves across the northwest Caribbean today. The
front will stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
tonight, then dissipate through Mon. High pressure building in the
wake of the front north of the region will support the expansion
of fresh to strong trade winds and building seas from off Colombia
to cover most of the south- central and southwest Caribbean from
Sun through Wed night. These winds may pulse to gale force mainly
at night off Colombia starting Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 55W: a cold front that recently moved off the northeast
Florida coast reaches from 31N76W to West Palm Beach, Florida.
Buoy observations show strong W to NW winds and building seas
following the front. The front will reinforcing a mostly
stationary front dissipating along 25N through the central Bahamas
and the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong S to SW winds with 5
to 7 ft seas in open waters are evident ahead of the front in the
waters north of 27N and west of 70W. Weak ridging centered near
31N60W is maintaining gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. Scattered
showers are evident on regional radar ahead of the front from the
Upper Florida Keys to the northern Bahamas. Scattered showers are
also likely ahead of the front from 27N to 29N between 70W and
75W.

For the forecast, the cold front moving off northeast
Florida will reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba tonight, before
stalling from 26N65W to eastern Cuba by late Sun and dissipating
early Mon. Another cold front will move into the waters between
northeast Florida and Bermuda late Sun, and also stall from 26N65W
to eastern Cuba by Mon night and early Tue, before dissipating
through mid week.

Farther east, a cold front reaches from 31N45W to 26N55W. Ridging
dominates the eastern Atlantic north of 20N, supporting fresh
trade winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in mainly NE swell south of 20N.

$$
Christensen
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