[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jan 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The surface pressure gradient, between high pressure that is to
the north of the area and the comparatively lower surface
pressure in Colombia and Panama, is helping to support strong
winds in the south central Caribbean Sea. Gale-force winds are
forecast to start during the late night/early morning hours of
this morning. The gale-force winds are forecast to stop on
Wednesday morning. Expect wave heights reaching from 10 feet to
13 feet in the areas of the comparatively fastest wind speeds.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 04N20W.
The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to 04N35W, 03N44W, 05N48W, and
to the coastal border of Brazil and French Guiana.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 150 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 27W and 34W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 180 nm
on either side of the rest of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Straits of Florida, to just
offshore NW Cuba. A surface trough continues from offshore NW
Cuba, to the NW part of the Yucatan Peninsula. A second surface
trough extends from 17N86W in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula,  to 22N95W in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 23N southward from 90W
westward.

The current cold front, across the Straits of Florida and the
Yucatan Channel, will stall on Wednesday, and then dissipate on
Thursday. A surface trough near the coast of Mexico will
maintain strong to near gale-force northwest winds in the far
western Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday. Another cold front
will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas will be following the front, as
it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday.
Another cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast on
Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Straits of Florida, to just
offshore NW Cuba. A surface trough continues from offshore NW
Cuba, to the NW part of the Yucatan Peninsula. A second surface
trough extends from 17N86W in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula,  to 22N95W in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate in the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N74W,
to 10N80W, across western Panama and Costa Rica, and beyond
09N84W in Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N
southward from 74W westward.

Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and
possible rainshowers span the rest of the Caribbean Sea, moving
with the surface-to-low level wind flow, away from the area of
the monsoon trough precipitation.

High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea
through Wednesday night, with gale force winds expected off the
coast of Colombia overnight. The wind speeds and the sea heights
in the central Caribbean Sea will diminish, from Thursday
through Sunday, as high pressure shifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N74W, to 30N76W, across the NW
Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, to just offshore NW
Cuba. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, is within 500 nm
to 700 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front, and
within 300 nm to the NW of the cold front.

A cold front passes through 32N33W to 30N36W. A stationary front
continues from 30N36W to 29N40W 25N50W 23N60W 23N66W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm
on either side of the frontal boundary.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean,
to the north and northwest of the cold front/stationary front. A
1022 mb high pressure center is near 30N62W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N22W to 28N33W, to 24N40W, and
to 22N58W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward from 60W eastward.

The current weak cold front, from 31N76W across the northern
Bahamas to the Straits of Florida, will stall and dissipate on
Wednesday. Reinforcing cold air on Thursday will push the front
to the east of the area through Friday. Southerly winds will
increase to the north of the Bahamas on Friday night, in advance
of a strong cold front that is expected to move off the
northeast Florida coast on Saturday. The front will reach from
31N73W across the Bahamas to central Cuba Sat night; and from
27N65W to the Windward Passage by late Sunday.

$$
mt/dm
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