[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jan 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 03N25W to 04N37W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to
06N between 26W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough, an extension of a weak cold front moving through
the Straits of Florida, reaches from the western part of Cuba near
23N84W to 22N90W. A second surface trough is analyzed in the Bay
of Campeche from 19N91W to 22N95W to 25N96W. Scattered moderate
showers are noted across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from 24N to
28N between 83W and 90W.

The surface trough in the SW Gulf of Mexico will maintain strong
to near gale force NW winds near the coast of Mexico today. A cold
front will move into the NW Gulf early Friday, and extend from the
Florida panhandle to southern Mexico near Veracruz Friday evening.
Reinforcing cold air will increase winds behind the front in the
northern Gulf Friday night and Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface pressure gradient between high pressure north of the
area and the comparatively lower surface pressure in Colombia and
Panama, is supporting strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
Sea near the coast of Colombia. Scatterometer data this morning
showed 25 to 30 kt winds in this area.

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N74W,
to 10N80W, across western Panama and Costa Rica, to beyond 09N84W
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered showers are noted from
09N to 13N between 77W and 83W.

Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds and isolated showers
span the rest of the Caribbean Sea, moving with the low level
wind flow, away from the area of the monsoon trough precipitation.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central Caribbean through Wednesday, with
strongest winds expected to continue near the coast of Colombia.
Winds and seas will diminish Thursday and Friday as the high
pressure shifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N72W to 26N77W in the NW Bahamas,
into the Straits of Florida, and to the northern coast of Cuba.
Scattered moderate showers embedded in overcast mid- and upper
level clouds are observed over a broad area within 180 nm on
either side of the frontal boundary.

A stationary front is analyzed across much of the subtropical
Atlantic from 32N32W to 25N51W to 23N66W. Isolated showers are
noted along the frontal boundary. A ridge of high pressure is
north of the stationary front, and a 1022 mb high is centered
near 30N63W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean north of 20N.

The weak cold front across the Bahamas will stall and dissipate
later today. A secondary cold front and reinforcing cool air will
push east of the area on Friday. SW winds will increase north of
the Bahamas Friday night, ahead of a strong cold front, expected
to move east of Florida on Saturday. The front will reach from
31N73W across the Bahamas to central Cuba Saturday night, and
from 27N65W to the Windward Passage on Sunday.

$$
Mundell
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