[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and the Colombian/Panamanian low is
supporting strong winds across the south-central Caribbean.
Latest scatterometer data provided observations of gale force
winds offshore Colombia. Winds will return to gale force tonight,
and then diminish to strong speeds early Wed, as well as Thu
through Sat as the high pressure weakens and shifts east. Wave
heights up to 12-13 ft are expected with the strongest winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwest to near 04N20W.
The ITCZ axis extends from 04N20W to 04N34W to near the Brazil
and French Guiana border at 04N52W. Convection is limited, with
only small area of moderate convection from 04N-05N between 28W-
30W, and also near 03N43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed over parts of French Guiana and Suriname.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Naples, Florida to Merida, Mexico
in the northwest part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Doppler Radar
indicates band of scattered showers across South Florida and the
Straits of Florida ahead of the front. Fresh northerly winds are
noted in the wake of the front, particularly between 87W-91W.
The front will stall over southern Florida or the Straits of
Florida on Wed, keeping the region cloudy with the risk of light
rain. The front will dissipate over this area on Thu.

A coastal trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf. This system will
maintain strong to near gale force northwest winds within about
60-75 nm of the coast of Mexico on Wed. By Wed night into Thu,
high pressure will dominate most of the Gulf waters. As a result,
winds and seas will diminish.

The next cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu night,
followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. The front
is forecast to exit the Gulf on Sat. Once again, high pressure
will dominate the basin on Sat. Southerly return flow will set-up
across the NW Gulf by Sat night ahead of another cold front
expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun. A low pressure may
develop along the frontal boundary over the western Gulf by Sun
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section for more information.

Elsewhere, the latest ASCAT data passes reveal fresh to strong
trade winds over the central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh
winds in the remainder of the area. Convection continues to
flare-up over the SW Caribbean off the coasts of Panama, Costa
Rica, and extreme southeast Nicaragua. A diffluent pattern aloft
supports this convective activity. Elsewhere, shallow moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the
region producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Wed
night, with winds reaching gale force off Colombia overnight
tonight into the early morning hours on Wed. Winds over the
central Caribbean will diminish and seas will subside Thu through
Sun as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

>From West to East, a cold front enters the forecast waters near
31N78W and continues SW to near Melbourne, FL. Abundant
cloudiness with embedded showers are noted on either side of the
frontal boundary, covering most of the area N of the central
Bahamas and W of 70W. Fresh to strong southwest winds were
observed by morning scatterometer data ahead of the cold front
mainly north of 30N. As previously mentioned, the front will
stall over southern Florida or the Straits of Florida on Wed, and
dissipate on Thu ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving across
the waters north of 27N and W of 65W. Winds and seas will increase
north of the Bahamas late Fri ahead of a stronger cold front
expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Sat. This front
is forecast to reach from near 31N73W to the central Bahamas and
to central Cuba by late Sat, and from 27N65W to the Windward
Passage by late Sun.

A stationary front is over the central Atlantic, and extends from
31N36W to 23N65W. This front will continue to weaken on Wed. The
remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge,
anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure located N of the Madeira
Islands. Fresh to strong trade winds are noted based on latest
scatterometer data N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to about to 22N-23N
and E of 40W to the coast of west Africa. These winds will persist
on Wed as a relatively tight pressure gradient remains over the
eastern Atlantic.

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net