[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282335
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Mar 01 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds will continue
within 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia today through Mon
then will pulse to gale force each night through Wed. Seas in
this area are currently ranging from 10 to 15 ft. The strongest
winds, up to 40 kt, are expected at night, with seas building to
18 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the
National Hurricane Center at the website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move
southward across the western Gulf late Mon through Tue and produce
strong to gale force winds to the NW of the front. Gale-force
northerly winds are expected offshore of the Tampico area Mon
night, and then across the Veracruz area much of the day Tue. Seas
will build to 9-12 ft as these gale-force winds develop.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 09N13W and
continues to 05N20W. The ITCZ begins near 05N20W and continues to
02N42W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is along the monsoon trough/ITCZ axis from 01.5N to 07N between
07W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for information about an
developing Gale Warning across the western Gulf of Mexico Mon
night and Tue.

Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds continue over the Gulf
of Mexico with no significant precipitation seen across the
basin. Seas are 4-7 ft over the western Gulf and up to 6 ft in
the Florida Straits, with 3-5 ft elsewhere. Marine fog prevails
about 60 nm off the coasts of Texas and Louisiana due to very
moist air blowing over cooler waters. This pattern will likely
continue through early next week to produce fog prevailing across
the north Gulf shelf waters.

High pressure ridging extending from the Atlantic over the basin
will begin to slide ESE tonight as a cold front approaches the
Texas coast. The front will move over the NW Gulf Mon afternoon.
>From Mon night through Tue afternoon a stationary front will be
oriented E to W over the NE Gulf to weak low pressure near south-
central Louisiana. The cold front will extend from the low
southwestward to the SW Gulf at that time. Strong to near gale-
force winds, with frequent gusts to gale force are expected over
the far western Gulf Tue. The stationary front will transition to
a warm front that lifts north of the Gulf late on Tue, and the
cold front will weaken as it reaches the central Gulf Wed, the
southeastern Gulf Thu and to just east of the area by late Thu
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for information about an
ongoing Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia.

An ASCAT pass at 1400 UTC revealed fresh to strong trades across
most of the Caribbean sea, with the strongest winds occurring in
the central/south-central Caribbean. Fresh SE flow prevails
offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Channel. Seas in
the western Caribbean range from 4-7 ft reaching 8 ft in the Gulf
of Honduras, as well as within the Windward Passage. Seas 6-9 ft
over the remainder of the basin, and area as high as 15 ft off
the NW coast of Colombia. Upper-level ridging continues to
provide dry air subsidence, maintaining fair weather conditions
across the basin and limiting shower activity. A few quickly
passing cells in the trade wind flow are impacting the E Caribbean,
as well as the coastal waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and
Panama.

Strong trade winds across the central and portions of the SW
Caribbean will continue through Wed, except in the south-central
basin where strong to near gale force winds will prevail through
Thu night. Gale force winds near the coast of Colombia will
continue through early on Mon, then pulse at night and into the
early morning hours through Wed. Fresh to strong northeast winds
will continue across the remainder of the Caribbean and Atlantic
Passages through Mon. Otherwise, north swell will continue to
support large seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the
Windward Islands through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging dominates the waters west of 50W. Strong E to SE flow
remains north of Cuba and Hispaniola, becoming fresh to moderate
north of 24N. Higher wave heights of 9-10 ft are noted near the
Windward and Mona Passages, as well as heights of 8-9 ft near the
eastern Bahamas, with seas 4-8 ft elsewhere over the open
tropical Atlantic waters.

Farther east, a middle to upper-level trough supports a cold
front over the central Atlc, which extends from 32N34W to 29N39W
where the front stalls and continues to 27N43W. A shear line
follows the tail end of the boundary, stretching to 23N53W.
Behind the front, NW winds are fresh to strong, while ahead of
the boundary, there are moderate easterlies. Some widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms have formed along the shear line between
43W-53W. Seas over the open waters are mainly 7-10 ft.

High pressure over the area will continue to support fresh to
strong E winds across the waters south of 24N through Mon night. A
cold front will move over the far northwest waters Mon night,
then transition to a stationary front as its reaches from near
28N65W to 31N79W Tue night. Strong east winds will develop north
of this boundary Tue and Tue night as strong high pressure to its
north builds southward. The stationary front will lift back to the
north as a warm front in response to low pressure that will move
northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to off the coast of the
Carolinas on Wed morning. The low pressure will strengthen as it
quickly tracks northeastward through Thu night pushing a strong
cold front across the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas.
This front will be preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds
and building seas.

$$
Stripling
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