[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Mar 01 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds will continue
within 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia today then will
pulse to gale force each night through Wed. Seas in this area
are currently ranging from 10 to 16 ft. The strongest winds, up
to 40 kt, are expected at night, with seas building to 18 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move
southward across the western Gulf late Mon through Tue and
produce strong to gale-force winds to the NW of the front. The
strongest winds are expected offshore of the Tampico area Mon
night, and then across the Veracruz area much of the day Tue.
Seas will build to 8-12 ft within the area of strongest winds.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the
National Hurricane Center at the website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details about
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 06N11W and
continues to 03N17W. The ITCZ begins near 03N17W and continues to
01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
boundaries between 14W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for information about a
developing Gale Warning across the western Gulf Mon night and
Tue.

High pressure ridging extending from the Atlantic to the central
Gulf will slide ESE tonight as a cold front approaches the Texas
coast. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds continue over the Gulf
of Mexico with no significant precipitation noted across the
basin. Seas are 4-7 ft over the western Gulf, up to 6 ft in the
Florida Straits, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Marine fog prevails about
60 nm off the coasts of Texas and Louisiana due to very moist
air blowing over cooler waters. This pattern will likely
continue through the next few days.

The next cold front will move over the NW Gulf this afternoon.
>From Mon night through Tue afternoon a stationary front will be
oriented E to W over the NE Gulf to weak low pressure near south-
central Louisiana. The cold front will extend from the low
southwestward to the SW Gulf at that time. Strong gale force
north winds are expected over the far western Gulf south of 26N
Mon night into Tue. The stationary front will transition to a
warm front that lifts north of the Gulf late on Tue, and the
cold front will weaken as it reaches the central Gulf Tue night
into Wed, the southeastern Gulf during Wed and east of the Gulf
late Wed night. In the wake of this front, high pressure will
shift eastward across the northern and central Gulf Fri and Fri
night as another low forms along a front that may possibly enter
the NW and north-central Gulf areas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for information about an
ongoing Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia.

Latest scatterometer data continues to depict gale-force winds
over the south central Caribbean south of 14N between 74W-79W.
Moderate to strong easterly winds prevail west of 70W (including
the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras), while
moderate to fresh easterlies are noted east of 70W. Seas in
the western Caribbean range from 4-7 ft reaching 8 ft in the Gulf
of Honduras, as well as within the Windward Passage. Seas 6-9 ft
over the remainder of the basin, and area as high as 16 ft off
the NW coast of Colombia. Upper-level ridging continues to
provide dry air subsidence, maintaining fair weather conditions
across the basin. A few quick passing showers embedded in the
trade wind flow are impacting the east and central Caribbean,
as well as the coastal waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and
Panama.

Strong trade winds across the central and portions of the SW
Caribbean will continue through Wed, except in the south-central
basin where strong winds will prevail through Fri night. Gale
force winds near the coast of Colombia will continue through
early on Mon, then pulse at night and into the early morning
hours through Wed. Fresh to strong northeast winds will continue
across the remainder of the Caribbean and Atlantic Passages
through Mon while fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of
Honduras will prevail through Tue. Otherwise, north swell will
continue to support large seas over the tropical Atlantic waters
east of the Windward Islands through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging dominates the waters west of 50W, anchored by a
1026 mb high centered near 30N65W. To the east, a stationary
front extends from 31N32W to 26N44W, then a shearline extends
from that point to 21N52W. Behind the front, NW winds are fresh
to strong, while ahead of the boundary, there are moderate
easterlies. A surface trough extends from 24N41W to 19N46W with
scattered showers. Strong E to SE flow remains north of Cuba and
Hispaniola, becoming fresh to moderate north of 24N. Wave
heights of 9-10 ft are noted near the Windward and Mona
Passages, 8-9 ft waves near the eastern Bahamas, and waves of 4-
8 ft elsewhere over the open tropical Atlantic waters.

High pressure over the area will continue to support
fresh to strong east winds across the waters south of 24N
through Mon night. A cold front will move over the far NW waters
Mon night, then transition to a stationary front as its reaches
from near 28N65W to 31N79W Tue night. Strong east winds will
develop north of this boundary on Tue as strong high
pressure to its north builds southward. The stationary front
will lift back to the north as a warm front in response to low
pressure that will move off the coast of the Carolinas on Wed
morning. The low pressure will strengthen as it quickly tracks
NE through Thu night pushing a strong cold front across the
waters N and NE of the Bahamas. This front will be preceded and
followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. In its
wake, high pressure will build over the area through Fri night.

$$

ERA/jif
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