[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Feb 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds will continue
within 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia today through Mon
then will pulse at night through Wed. Seas in this area are
ranging from 10 to 16 ft. The strongest winds, up to 40 kt, are
expected at night, with seas building to 18 ft. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center
at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N12W and
continues to 04N19W. The ITCZ begins near 04N19W and continues to
03N30W to 01N46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is along the monsoon trough/ITCZ axis from 01N to 07N and E of
37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds continue over the Gulf
of Mexico with no significant precipitation seen across the
basin. Seas are 4-7 ft over the western Gulf and up to 6 ft in
the Florida Straits, with 3-5 ft elsewhere. Marine fog prevails
about 60 nm off the coast of the U.S. throughout the northern
Gulf waters and west of the Florida peninsula due to very moist
air over cooler waters. Some areas will see breaks in the fog
for a few hours during the afternoon, with this pattern likely
continuing through early next week.

High pressure ridging extending from the Atlantic
over the basin will change little through this evening. The
ridge will then begin to slide ESE as a cold front approaches
the Texas coast. The front will move over the NW Gulf Mon
afternoon. From Mon night through Tue afternoon a stationary
front will be oriented E to W over the NE Gulf to weak low
pressure near south-central Louisiana. The cold front will extend
from the low southwestward to the SW Gulf at that time. Strong
to near gale-force winds, with frequent gusts to gale force are
expected over the far western Gulf Tue. The stationary front will
transition to a warm front that lifts north of the Gulf late on
Tue, and the cold front will weaken as it reaches the central
Gulf Wed, the southeastern Gulf Thu and to just east of the area
by late Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for information about an
ongoing Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia.

An ASCAT pass at 1400 UTC reveals fresh to strong trades across
most of the Caribbean sea, with the strongest winds occurring in
the central/south-central Caribbean. Flow near the Yucatan
Channel becomes fresh. Seas in the western Caribbean range from
3-6 ft reaching 8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, as well as within
the Windward Passage. Seas 6-9 ft over the remainder of the
basin, building to 16 ft off the NW coast of Colombia. Upper-
level ridging continues to provide dry air subsidence,
maintaining fair weather conditions across the basin and
limiting shower activity. A few training cells in the trade wind
flow are impacting the NE Caribbean, as well as the coastal
waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.

Strong trade winds across the central and portions
of the SW Caribbean will continue through Wed, except in the
south-central basin where strong to near gale force winds will
prevail through Thu night. Gale force winds near the coast of
Colombia will continue through early on Mon, then pulse at night
and into the early morning hours through Wed. Fresh to strong
northeast winds will continue across the remainder of the
Caribbean and Atlantic Passages through Mon. Otherwise, north
swell will continue to support large seas over the tropical
Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging dominates the waters west of 50W. Strong return
flow remains north of Cuba and Hispaniola, becoming fresh to
moderate north of 25N. Higher wave heights of up to 10 ft are
noted near the Windward and Mona Passages, as well as heights of
9 ft near the eastern Bahamas, with seas 4-8 ft elsewhere over
the open tropical Atlantic waters.

Farther east, a middle to upper-level trough supports a cold
front over the central Atlc, which extends from 32N34W to 29N39W
where the front stalls and continues to 27N43W. A shear line
follows the tail end of the boundary, stretching to 23N53W.
Behind the front, NW winds are fresh to strong, while ahead of
the boundary, there are moderate easterlies. Some isolated
showers and thunderstorms have formed along the shear line
between 44W-50W. Moreover, the ASCAT pass from this morning
revealed a surface trough stretching from 26N40W to 20N42W with
no significant weather associated with it. Seas over the open
waters are mainly 7-10 ft.

High pressure over the area will continue to support
fresh to strong E winds across the waters south of 24N through
Mon night. A cold front will move over the far northwest waters
Mon night, then transition to a stationary front as its reaches
from near 28N65W to 31N79W Tue night. Strong east winds will
develop north of this boundary Tue and Tue night as strong high
pressure to its north builds southward. The stationary front
will lift back to the north as a warm front in response to low
pressure that will move northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to
off the coast of the Carolinas on Wed morning. The low pressure
will strengthen as it quickly tracks northeastward through Thu
night pushing a strong cold front across the waters north and
northeast of the Bahamas. This front will be preceded and
followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas.


$$
Mora
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