[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Feb 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building north of
the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will
support pulses of gale-force northeast to east winds within about
90 nm of the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early
morning hours through the latter part of the week. Seas are
forecast to build to 8-12 ft with the strongest winds.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will push off
the Florida coast by this evening, and reach from near Bermuda to
the Upper Florida Keys by late Tue. Fresh to strong S-SW winds
are expected north of 27N between the front and 70W. Within this
area, winds will increase to minimal gale- force just ahead of the
front, particularly from 29N-31N between 74W-76W. The front will
continue to push eastward on Tue, with the winds diminishing below
gale- force by Tue night. Seas will build to 8-10 ft with the
strongest winds.

Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N50W
along the coast of Brazil near the mouth of the Amazon River.
Scattered moderate convection is active within 60 nm of the ITCZ
between 25W-35W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed from 02S to 04N west of 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data indicate
moderate to fresh SE winds over the eastern Gulf, where buoys are
also showing 5 to 7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5
ft seas are noted over the central and western Gulf. A cold front
is analyzed moving through the coastal sections of Texas. A local
trough is analyzed along the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula.
Coastal radars are showing a few showers moving eastward south of
Mobile Bay and the western Florida Panhandle. Elsewhere no
significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed.

For the forecast, the cold front moving across coastal Texas will
move into the northwest Gulf this morning, then move eastward
across the northern Gulf, reaching from near Tampa, Florida to
south of Brownsville, Texas by early Tue. The front will stall
along 25N by Tue night, then lift north and dissipate through Wed.
Looking ahead, a weak front may stall over the Texas coast Thu
and Thu night, and areas of sea fog is possible over the northwest
Gulf by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA

A Gale Warning has been issued for off the coast of Colombia. See
the the Special Features section for details.

A cold front extends from 32N43W to 25N60W to 23.5N70W, then
continues westward as a stationary front to 24N78W. 1033 mb high
pressure is building behind the front, centered off the Virginia
coast. Recent ship and buoy observations along with earlier
scatterometer satellite data confirmed fresh to strong NE to E
winds north of the front to 27N. Seas are 8 to 11 ft over open
waters north of the front west of 65W. Fresh to strong NW winds
and 8 to 16 ft seas are ongoing west of the front to 65W. Fresh to
strong SW winds are estimated east of the front, north of 27N,
with 8 to 12 ft seas. 1024 mb high pressure centered near 27N28W
is shifting eastward ahead of the front. This is support generally
moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds farther south. Long
period NW to N swell in excess of 8 ft is noted mainly east of
50W.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the portion of the
front that is stationary along 23N through the central Bahamas
into the Straits of Florida will dissipate through late today.
High pressure following the front is supporting fresh to strong NE
to E winds across the western Atlantic through this morning. The
next front will move off the NE Florida coast tonight and reach
from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid week. Strong to
minimal gale force SW winds and building seas are expected ahead
of the front north of 29N Tue. Weak ridging will extend from
Bermuda to northeast Florida from mid to late week.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net