[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Feb 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 01200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE-E winds continue over the
south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through this
morning due to strong high pressure building north of the
Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low. Pulses
of gails will return again during the overnight hours tonight
and last into the latter part of the week. Sea are forecast to
build to 18-12 ft with the strongest winds.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will push off
the Florida coast by this evening, and reach from near Bermuda to
the Upper Florida Keys by late Tue. Fresh to strong S-SW winds
are expected north of 27N between the front and 70W. Within this
area, winds will increase to minimal gale- force just ahead of
the front, particularly from 29N-31N between 74W-76W. The front
will continue to push eastward on Tue, with the winds
diminishing below gale- force by Tue night. Seas will build to 8-
10 ft with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to
03N30W to 01N44W along the coast of Brazil near the mouth of
the Amazon River. Scattered moderate convection is active
along the ITCZ from 01N-05N between 20W-34W. Similar convection
is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 37W-44W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02S to
04N along the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC: a quickly progressing cold front enters the Gulf
through eastern Louisiana near 29N90W and reaches the eastern
Texas/Mexico border near 26N97W. Scatterometer satellite data
indicates moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front. A
surface trough stretching from Panama City, FL to 25N87W is
allowing for the change of wind direction from moderate
northwesterlies in the central gulf, to moderate to fresh
southeasterlies in the eastern gulf, with mainly fresh ESE winds
in the Florida Straits. Coastal radars show a few showers
associated with the trough traveling northeastward across the
Florida Panhandle. Buoy observations in the Gulf are showing 3-6
ft seas. Elsewhere, east winds in the far southwestern Gulf are
converging with west-northwesterlies coming off Mexico allowing
for light showers west of 92W.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Tampa,
Florida to south of Brownsville, Texas by early Tue. The front
will stall along 25N by Tue night, then lift north and dissipate
through Wed. Looking ahead, a weak front may stall over the
Texas coast Thu and Thu night, and areas of sea fog is possible
over the northwest Gulf by the end of the week. Otherwise, fresh
to locally strong northerly winds are expected in the Bay of
Campeche tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the waters off the coast of
Colombia. See the Special Features section for details.

GOES-16 low level water vapor imagery reveals remnants of
shallow moisture across the basin, otherwise a high centered
north of the area is keeping conditions in place. Fresh trade
winds dominate the basin, becoming locally strong off the waters
adjacent to Colombia, and within the Windward Passage. Wind
speeds decrease to moderate ENE in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward
Passage and in the lee of Cuba will diminish by late morning as
high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. Fresh to
locally strong winds are forecast for the central and portions
of the SW Caribbean through Fri with pulses to gale force off
the coast of Colombia during the overnight hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning has been issued for Western Atlantic. See
the Special Features section for details.

A cold front extends from 32N40W to 25N60W to 24N64W, then
continues westward as a stationary front to 25N77W. The tail end
of this boundary is beginning to dissipate. 1013 mb high
pressure is building behind the front, centered off the North
Carolina coast. Recent scatterometer data confirmed fresh to
strong NE to E winds within 200 nm of the section of the front
that is stationary. Seas are 8 to 11 ft over open waters north
of the front west of 65W. Fresh to strong NW winds and 8 to 16
ft seas are ongoing west of the front to 65W. Fresh to 43W.
Strong SW winds are estimated east of the front, north of 27N,
with 8 to 12 ft seas. 1023 mb high pressure centered near 27N22W
is shifting eastward ahead of the front. This will support
generally moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds farther
south. Long period NW to N swell in excess of 8 ft is noted
mainly east of 50W.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the stationary
front along 23N through the central Bahamas will dissipate
through late today. High pressure following the front is
supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the western
Atlantic S of 27N through this afternoon. The next front will
move off the NE Florida coast tonight and reach from Bermuda to
the Straits of Florida by mid week. Strong to minimal gale force
SW winds and building seas are expected ahead of the front north
of 29N Tue. Weak ridging will extend from Bermuda to northeast
Florida from mid to late week.

$$
Mora
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