[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Feb 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building north of
the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will
support pulses of gale-force northeast to east winds within about
90 nm of the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early
morning hours. Expect these conditions to continue through the
middle of week. Seas are forecast to build to 8-12 ft with the
strongest winds.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will push off
the Florida coast tonight. By Tue morning, the cold front will
stretch from 31N75W to 27N80W. Fresh to strong S-SW winds are
expected N of 27N between the front and 70W. Within this area,
winds will increase to minimal gale-force just ahead of the front,
particularly from 29N-31N between 74W-76W. The front will continue
to push eastward on Tue, with the winds diminishing below gale-
force by Tue night. Seas will build to 8-10 ft with the strongest
winds.

Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Sierra Leone
near 07N12W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to 02N35W
to 00N50W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N-05N between 38W-45W. Clusters
of moderate to strong convection can be found S of 03N between
45W-48W, and over northern Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge continues to dominate the Gulf region anchored by a 1035
mb high located over the U.S. Middle Atlantic. Recent satellite
derived wind data reveal moderate to fresh southerly return flow
over much of the basin with seas of 3-5 ft range. In the SE Gulf
and the Straits of Florida fresh to strong easterly winds prevail
with seas in the 6-8 ft range. Areas of low-level clouds with
possible light rain are noted across the Gulf waters mainly N of
22N. The easterly wind flow is advecting some low-level moisture,
with embedded showers over SE Florida and the Florida Key.

The ridge will shift east ahead of a cold front expected to move
into the NW Gulf this morning. The new front will stall across the
southeast Gulf along 25N late Tue, then lift north and dissipate
through Wed. Looking ahead, a third front will move to the northwest
Gulf coast on Thu, where it will meander through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong
winds over the south-central Caribbean. Pulsing winds to minimal
gale-force are expected near the coast of Colombia during the
overnight and early morning hours. As a result, a Gale Warning is
in effect. Please see the Special Features section above for more
details. The same ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong NE winds in
the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds prevail across
the remainder of the east and central Caribbean while gentle to
moderate NE-E winds are noted over the NW Caribbean, including
the Gulf of Honduras.

Patches of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
will continue to move westward across the basin producing isolated
to scattered passing showers.

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will continue to support
fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage and in the
lee of Cuba through this morning. This weather pattern will also
support overnight pulses to gale force off the coast of Colombia
through mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning has been issued in the western Atlantic. See the
the Special Features section for details.

A cold front stretches from 31N48W to 24N68W where it becomes
stationary to the central Bahamas. A 120 nm wide-band of mainly
low clouds, with possible showers is associated with the front. A
difference in pressure between the front and strong high pressure
located N of the forecast region supports a large area of fresh
to strong winds in the wake of the front. It should be noted an
area of strong NE winds just behind the front to about 26N affecting
most of the NW and central Bahamas. Seas are in the 10-11 ft range
within this area of winds E of the Bahamas. Recent scatterometer
data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence
of a 1024 mb high pressure located near 26N33W. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are observed per scatterometer passes around the southern
periphery of this system between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles.

The stationary portion of the front will dissipate late today.
High pressure following the front will support fresh to strong NE
to E winds across the western Atlantic through this morning. The
next front will move off the NE Florida coast Mon night and reach
from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid-week. Strong to
minimal gale force SW winds and building seas are expected ahead
of the front north of 29N early Tue through Tue night.

$$
GR
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