[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191107
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Feb 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to the
south-central Gulf northwest of Merida, Mexico. Reinforcing cold
air behind the front is supporting gale force northerly winds near
Tampico, and in the Veracruz region through this morning, with
seas building to 14 to 16 ft. Winds and seas will diminish this
afternoon as high pressure builds over the basin. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane
Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, 00N48W. Scattered
moderate convection is note from 02N-05N between 10W-17W, from
03S-00N between 21W-29W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident from 00N-03N between 42W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to the
south-central Gulf northwest of Merida, Mexico. An earlier
scatterometer pass along with recent buoy and platform
observations show strong to near gale force northerly winds across
the northwest and west-central Gulf as reinforcing cold air moves
into the basin. Seas are building with Buoy 41005 in the southwest
Gulf showing seas to 14 ft. Fresh to strong NW winds are evident
elsewhere west of the front, with 6 to 9 ft. Moderate southerly
flow and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident east of the front. Numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident within 120 nm east
of the front. Drier conditions prevail west of the front.

The front will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern
Bay of Campeche later this morning, exiting the basin by this
evening. High pressure will be in control of the Gulf region into
Sun. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the
northwest Gulf Sun night into Mon morning, and move across the
basin through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Ship observations indicate strong to near-gale force winds off the
coast of Colombia this morning, where seas are estimated to be 9
to 11 ft. These winds are due to a combination of strong high
pressure north of the area, and local overnight drainage flow
coming off the higher terrain along the coast. Fresh to strong
trade winds are noted elsewhere over the eastern and central
Caribbean, especially off the southern coast of Haiti, with 6 to 9
ft seas. Fresh to strong SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident
north of Honduras, with moderate SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. No significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is noted other than a few fast-moving
showers across the Windward Islands.

For the forecast, a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move
through the Yucatan Channel and into the northwest Caribbean
tonight. The front will stall from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras Sat, then dissipate through Sun. High pressure building
in the wake of the front north of the area will support fresh to
strong NE winds Sun night, and overnight pulses to gale force off
the coast of Colombia Sun night through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W: a front remains stalled along the northeast Florida
coast near Jacksonville. A ridge extends east to west from 1028 mb
high pressure near 29N60W to east central Florida. Buoy and ship
observations off northeast Florida and in the northern Bahamas
show fresh to locally strong southerly winds, between the ridge
and the front. Fresh to strong E winds are also evident off the
coast of Hispaniola, between the ridge to the north and the higher
terrain inland. Seas are generally 5 to 8 ft off northeast
Florida and south of 22N, with 4 to 6 ft in open seas elsewhere
north of 22N. No significant showers or thunderstorms are evident,
but showers are approaching the waters off northeast Florida from
the west ahead of a cold front.

For the forecast, the cold front approaching the area from the
west will move off the northeast Florida coast early today, reach
from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas and western Cuba by late Sat,
then stall and weaken from 24N65W to central Cuba by late Sun. A
band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. High
pressure following the front will support fresh to strong NE to E
winds across the western Atlantic Sat night through Mon. Looking
ahead, another front will move off the northeast Florida coast Mon
night, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Tue
night.

Elsewhere farther east, fresh to strong trade winds  are evident
west of 45W over the tropical Atlantic, south of the high pressure
near 24N65W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the area of fresh to strong
trades with a component of northerly swell. A pair of troughs
east of this high pressure is allowing only moderate trade wind
flow and 5 to 7 ft seas in the tropical Atlantic east of 45W.
Northerly swell is starting to propagate into the waters north of
28N, east of 45W.

$$
Christensen
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