[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Feb 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front is along 30N84W 21N90W. Expect gale-force NW-to-N
winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 14 feet, in the
area that is bounded by the points: 19N95W 19N96W 22N98W 24N98W
23N96W 19N95W.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W, to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W, to
02N30W, crossing the Equator along 39W, to 01S42W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N
southward from 40W westward to South America. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 06N southward between 10W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the
central Gulf of Mexico, to 22N92W. A surface trough starts about
75 nm to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula, and then the trough
continues through the Yucatan Peninsula, to the northernmost
parts of Guatemala. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 180 nm to the east of the stationary front, in
the central and western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, and
in the northernmost sections of Guatemala.

A sharp surface ridge extends from inland Mexico near 28N101W,
to the coast of Mexico near 24N98W, to the coast of Mexico near
19N96W.

The current stationary front extends from near Panama City,
Florida to the south-central Gulf of Mexico near 22N92W.
Reinforcing cold air behind the front will induce gale-force
northerly winds near Tampico, and in the Veracruz region, from
tonight into Friday. Gale-force winds also are expected in the
Bay of Campeche on Friday, with seas building to 14 to 16 feet.
The front will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern
Bay of Campeche on Friday morning, exiting the basin by Friday
evening. High pressure will be in control of the Gulf region
into Sunday. Another cold front will move into the northwest
Gulf of Mexico from Sunday night into Monday morning, and move
across the basin through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model, for 250 mb, shows broad upper level cyclonic wind
flow from 72W eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence in
water vapor imagery surrounds this area of upper level cyclonic
wind flow. An upper level ridge extends from the coast of
Colombia to Jamaica and SE Cuba. The GFS model for 500 mb shows
broad and comparatively weaker cyclonic wind flow, from 17N
southward from 76W eastward. A separate area of cyclonic wind
flow is just off the coast of eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua.
The GFS model for 700 mb shows broad SE wind flow, as it is
moving around an Atlantic Ocean anticyclonic circulation center,
that is near 28N56W.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 86W eastward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated
moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level
wind flow. Similar clouds and precipitation also are from 12N
southward from 80W westward, in the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. A surface trough is along 10N75W, southwestward, beyond the
Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.

High pressure to the north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean
Sea through Friday night. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected
in the NW Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras, for the
rest of today, as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel.
The front will reach the NW Caribbean Sea by Friday evening, and
extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Saturday,
then stall and weaken on Sunday. Fresh to strong north winds
will follow the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N79W, inland in SE Georgia.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 28N northward from 76W
westward.

A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 29N58W. A 1028 mb high
pressure center is near 32N59W. One surface trough is along
33N38W 31N41W 29N46W. A second surface trough is along 34N30W
30N31W 26N35W. No significant deep convective precipitation is
associated with either trough.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 28N26W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, on either side
of the surface troughs.

A cold front approaching the area from the west will move off
the northeast Florida coast early on Friday. The cold front will
extend from 31N79W to central Florida by late Fri, from 31N73W
across the NW Bahamas into western Cuba Fri night, from 31N67W
to central Cuba Sat, then stall and weaken from 24N65W to
central Cuba on Sun. A band of rainshowers and thunderstorms
will accompany the front. High pressure to the north of the
front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the
western Atlantic Ocean from Saturday night through Monday.

$$
mt/ec
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net