[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182301
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The combination of a strong cold
front over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and high
pressure building southward over the central U.S. is resulting
in strong northerly winds over the western Gulf of Mexico. These
winds are expected to reach gale force in the Veracruz region
tonight and continue into Friday as the high builds over Texas
and northern Mexico. Seas are forecast to build up to 16 ft. in
some locations over the southwestern Gulf tonight and Fri. before
subsiding over the weekend.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 07N11W to
04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 01N37W to 01S45W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 03N between 44W
and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the SW Gulf of Mexico for the
Veracruz region. Please see the Special Features section for
more details.

A strong cold front continues to move slowly southeastward across
the Gulf of Mexico, and it currently extends from the Florida
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Behind the front, strong
northerly flow, colder air, and widespread cloudiness exists.
Ahead of the front, light to moderate southerly flow and
generally fair weather is common, with the exception being very
near the front over the far northeastern waters where a line of
showers and thunderstorms are moving eastward.

Reinforcing cold air behind the front will induce gale force
northerly winds near Tampico, and in the Veracruz region tonight
into Fri. Gales are also expected in the Bay of Campeche on Fri,
with seas building to 14-16 ft. The front will reach from the
Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight, from Ft.
Myers, Florida to NE Yucatan peninsula on Fri, exiting the basin
by Fri evening. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected
across the Gulf Sun and Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally fair weather prevails across the Caribbean Sea, with
only the typical patches of low-level clouds and showers moving
westward within the trade wind flow. The low-level moisture seems
to be most concentrated a couple of hundred miles to the south
of Hispaniola. Surface observations and scatterometer data
indicate that fresh to locally strong trade winds are noted over
the central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trades are occurring
over the eastern Caribbean. Increasing southeasterly winds are
expected over the NW Caribbean ahead of the front that is
currently over the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the
NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras as a cold front approaches the
Yucatan Channel. The front will reach the NW Caribbean by Fri
evening, and extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on
Sat, then stall and weaken Sat night. Fresh to strong north winds
will follow the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Weather conditions across much of the subtropical and tropical
Atlantic Ocean are fairly tranquil at the moment. Surface
ridging, supported by a 1026 mb high near 30N60W and a 1023 mb
high near 28N29W, and dry air in the mid- and upper-levels are
providing a limited amount of concentrated showers or
thunderstorms. There is a surface trough between the two highs
over the central Atlantic, but no active weather appears to be
occurring along the boundary. Winds are generally light in the
subtropics, closer to the surface highs, and moderate over the
tropics where the pressure gradient is tighter between the ridge
and the ITCZ.

Fresh to strong southerly winds are developing east of Florida
ahead of a cold front over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The front
will extend from 31N79W to central Florida on Fri, from 31N73W
across the NW Bahamas into western Cuba Fri night, from 31N67W to
central Cuba on Sat, then stall and weaken from 24N65W to
central Cuba on Sun. A band of showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the front. High pressure north of the front will
support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the western Atlantic
Sat night through Mon.

$$
Cangialosi
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