[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181829
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Feb 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1013 mb low pressure system
located Near the Georgia/Alabama border north of Tallahassee,
Florida. A Cold front extends southwest to 18N94W in the Bay of
Campeche. The altimeter data and buoy observations are showing
mainly fresh northerly winds west of the front, with fresh to
strong north winds in the waters near Galveston Texas. Seas are in
the 5-8 ft range on either side of the frontal boundary. The cold
front will continue to move eastward today. Strong high pressure
associated with reinforcing cold air will tighten the pressure
gradient west of the front later today. Strong northerly winds
will reach gale force in the Veracruz region of the SW Gulf
tonight and Fri. Seas will build to 10-16 ft near the highest
winds.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 06N11W to
03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 01N42W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted south of the boundary from 01S-04N
between 07W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the SW Gulf of Mexico for the
Veracruz region. Please see the Special Features section for
more details.

Widespread stratocumulus clouds blanket the waters west of the
front, and a line of moderate to strong convection has developed
north of 27N ahead of the front in the north-central Gulf. This
line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist through
today as the front moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to near
Veracruz, Mexico. Reinforcing cold air behind the front will
induce gale force northerly winds near Tampico, and in the
Veracruz region tonight into Fri. Gales are also expected in the
Bay of Campeche on Fri, with seas building to 14-16 ft. The
front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of
Campeche tonight, from Ft. Myers, Florida to NE Yucatan
peninsula on Fri, exiting the basin by Fri evening. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds are expected across the Gulf Sun and Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are noted over the central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are over the eastern
Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded within the low level wind
flow will continue to move across the region producing isolated
passing trade wind showers.

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the
NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras today as a cold front
approaches the Yucatan Channel. The front will reach the NW
Caribbean by Fri evening, and extend from central Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras on Sat, then stall and weaken Sat night. Fresh
to strong north winds will follow the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Altimeter data shows a large area of fresh to locally strong
easterly winds in the tropical North Atlantic waters, and buoy
observations indicate winds are increasing north of the Bahamas
and veering to the south. Broad anticyclonic wind flow
associated with a 1029 mb high centered near 30N58W prevails
across the west-central Atlantic. Isolated showers are noted
south of 25N between 60W and 70W.

Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop east of Florida
later today through Fri as a cold front moves into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. The front will extend from 31N79W to central
Florida on Fri, from 31N73W across the NW Bahamas into western
Cuba Fri night, from 31N67W to central Cuba on Sat, then stall
and weaken from 24N65W to central Cuba on Sun. A band of showers
and thunderstorms will accompany the front. High pressure
north of the front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds
across the western Atlantic Sat night through Mon.

$$ Torres
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