[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181038 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Feb 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1009 mb low pressure system is
centered near Pensacola Florida. A cold front extends from the
low center to the coast of Mexico near Veracruz, Mexico. A warm
front is across northern Florida. The cold front will move
eastward today. Strong high pressure associated with reinforcing
cold air will tighten the pressure gradient west of the front
later today. Strong northerly winds will reach gale force in the
Veracruz region of the SW Gulf tonight and Fri. Seas will build
to 10-16 ft in the area of highest winds.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between high pressure north
of the Caribbean Sea and an area of low pressure in northern
Colombia is expected to support minimal gale force winds near
the coast of Colombia this morning. Seas are forecast to build
to 10-12 ft with the strongest winds.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 07N11W to
03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 01N34W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of the axis
from 00N-03N between 09W-22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the SW Gulf of Mexico for the
Veracruz region. Please see the Special Features section for
more details. Altimeter data and buoy observations are showing
mainly fresh northerly winds west of the front, with fresh to
strong north winds in the waters near Galveston Texas. Seas are
in the 5-8 ft range on either side of the frontal boundary.

Widespread stratocumulus clouds blanket the waters west of the
front, and a line of moderate to strong convection has developed
north of 26N ahead of the front in the north-central Gulf. This
line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist through
tonight as the front moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The cold front will move across the remainder of the basin
through Friday. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are
expected behind the front through Fri morning. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds are expected across the Gulf Sunday and Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect this morning near the northern coast
of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section for more
details. Altimeter passes early this morning were outside the
area of expected gale force winds. Fresh to locally strong trade
winds are noted over the remainder of the central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are over the eastern Caribbean.

Shallow moisture embedded within the low level wind flow will
continue to move across the region producing isolated passing
trade wind showers.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Fri
night. Strong SE winds are expected in the NW Caribbean and Gulf
of Honduras today as a cold front approaches the Yucatan
Channel. The front will move across western Caribbean Friday and
Saturday, then stall and weaken Saturday night. Strong north
winds will follow the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak warm front snakes across northern Florida from a 1017 mb
low north of the area at 32N79W to Daytona Beach to Tallahassee
to a 1009 mb low near Pensacola. Altimeter data shows a large
area of fresh to locally strong easterly winds in the tropical
North Atlantic waters, and buoy observations indicate winds are
increasing north of the Bahamas, and veering to the south. Broad
anticyclonic wind flow associated with a 1027 mb high centered
near 29N63W prevails across the west-central Atlantic. Isolated
showers are noted south of 23N between 50W and 68W.

Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop east of Florida
later today through Friday as a cold front moves into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. The front will extend from 31N79W to
central Florida on Friday, from 31N67W across the Bahamas to
northern Cuba on Saturday, then stall and weaken from 24N65W to
central Cuba Sunday. Numerous showers and strong thunderstorms
are possible ahead of the front as it moves east of Florida.
High pressure north of the front will support fresh to strong
winds NE to E winds across the western Atlantic Sunday through
Monday.

$$
Mundell
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