[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds are
occurring in the SW Gulf of Mexico offshore of Veracruz in
association with reinforcing cold air behind a cold front. An
altimeter pass from 19/1114 UTC showed seas of 16 to 17 ft from
21N-23N between 94.5W-96W. NOAA buoy 42055 (22.1N 93.9W) reported
significant wave heights of 16 ft and winds 33 kt gusting to 39
kt this morning around 1300 UTC. The gales are expected to end
early this afternoon as high pressure builds over the basin. Seas
will subside this evening. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the border of Sierra Leone and
Guinea near 09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to
01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-07N
between 14W-21W, from 04S-00N between 22W-28W and from 00N-06N
between 26W-34W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is evident from 01S-05N between 42W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Clearwater Florida near 28N83W to the
Yucatan Peninsula near 21N89W to N Guatemala near 17N90W. NWS
Doppler Radar and GOES-16 satellite imagery show scattered
moderate showers and isolated tstorms within 45 nm either side of
the cold front, mainly north of 23N and east of 88W, including
portions of northern Florida. Gale force N winds are occurring
well behind the front offshore of Veracruz. See the Special
Features section above for details on the Gale Warning. A recent
ASCAT pass from around 19/1500 UTC shows near gale force N winds
are elsewhere behind the front south of 24N and west of 89W.
Strong winds cover most of the remainder of the Gulf behind the
front, although winds off the Texas coast have diminished to
moderate due to a 1034 mb high pressure moving in over central
Texas.

Gale force winds will end offshore Veracruz by early afternoon.
The cold front will continue moving southeastward, and exit the
basin by this evening. High pressure will be in control of the
Gulf into Sunday. The next cold front will move into the
northwest Gulf Sunday night into Monday morning, and move across
the basin through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds are noted over the eastern and
central Caribbean as shown by a recent ASCAT pass as well as ship
and buoy observations, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh SE
winds are north of Honduras, with moderate SE winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. No significant
shower or tstorm activity is noted other than a few fast-moving
trade-wind showers across the eastern Caribbean.

A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move through the Yucatan
Channel and into the northwest Caribbean tonight. The front will
stall from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat, then
dissipate through Sun. High pressure building in the wake of the
front north of the area will support fresh to strong NE winds Sun
night, and overnight pulses to gale force off the coast of
Colombia Sun night through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is from 32N79W to 30N81W. A cold front is from
30N81W to St. Augustine Florida to Clearwater Florida. Scattered
showers are within 75 nm NW of the front. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are within 30 nm SE of the front. A recent ASCAT
pass shows that fresh to locally strong S winds precede the front
north of 28N. Seas are generally 5 to 8 ft in the western
Atlantic to the east and northeast of the Bahamas. Surface
ridging extends from a 1027 mb high near 29N58W to the coast of
central Cuba near 22N78W. A surface ridge also extends E from the
high to 25N38W to a 1022 mb high near 25N26W to 31N11W. Gentle
winds are near the ridge axis, except for moderate winds in the
Bahamas. Fresh to strong trade winds are from 07N-24N between
46W-70W, with seas of 6 to 9 ft. A cold front enters the area
north of the ridge axis in the east-central Atlantic from 32N29N
to 28N38W, with a dissipating cold front from 28N38W to 32N51W.
Fresh to strong W winds are from 29N-32N between 20W-38W.
Northerly swell is propagating into the waters north of 27N, east
of 45W, with seas building to 10 to 14 ft by this evening.

For the forecast, the front off Florida will become entirely a
cold front this afternoon and move eastward, reaching from
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas and western Cuba by late Sat and
from 32N50W to 24N65W to central Cuba late Sun. The SW portion of
the front will stall and weaken from 24N65W to central Cuba late
Sun. Active showers and tstorms will continue to accompany the
front. High pressure following the front will support fresh to
strong NE to E winds across the western Atlantic Sat night
through Mon. The next front will move off the NE Florida coast
Mon night, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by
Tue night.

$$
Hagen
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