[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172138
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A low pressure system of 1008 mb is
over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 28.5N94.5W. The attendant cold
front extends from the low center to the coast of Mexico near
Tampico, Mexico. A stationary front stretches from near Bonita
Springs, Florida to the low pressure. The stationary front will
lift north as a warm front through tonight. At the same time, the
cold front will move eastward reaching from Mobile, Alabama to
near Veracruz, Mexico tonight. Then, the front will stall there on
Thu. Reinforcing cold air will allow the front to move again
across the Gulf waters late Thu and Fri, exiting the basin by Fri
evening. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front, reaching
gale force over the SW Gulf Thu night and Fri. Seas are forecast
to build to 10-15 ft with the strongest winds.

Caribbean Gale Warning: Near gale force winds were noted within
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia earlier today based on
satellite-derived wind data. The pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the Caribbean Sea and the Colombian/Panamanian low
will support strong to minimal gale force winds near the coast of
Colombia tonight. These conditions are possible again Sun night.
Seas are forecast to build to 10-11 ft with the strongest winds.

Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from 04N25W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N-07N between 07W-21W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N-06N between 27W-34W, and
from 00N-02N between 42W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the SW Gulf of Mexico near the
Veracruz area. Please see the Special Features section for more
details. Buoys across the northern Gulf are reporting fresh to
strong E-SE winds south of a stationary front and NE-E north of
the stationary front. Seas are mainly in the 7-11 ft range near
the low pressure center located over the NW Gulf, while a ship
near the low reported seas to 12 ft earlier.

Abundant cloudiness, with possible showers, dominates much of the
Gulf basin, particularly north of 26N and west of 87W where the
frontal boundaries/low pressure are. A few showers are also noted
over the SE Gulf moving into SW Florida. Thick low clouds are
banked up against the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Once the
cold front described above moves east of the basin Fri, moderate
to fresh E to SE winds are expected Fri night through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Caribbean Sea near the north
coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section for
more details. Fresh to strong trade winds are noted by earlier
satellite-derived wind data over the remainder of the central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are over the eastern Caribbean.

Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to
move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing
showers. Showers carried by fresh NE winds continue to affect Puerto
Rico and regional waters, and parts of Dominican Republic.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Fri
night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras
will increase to strong to near gale force tonight through Thu
evening as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. The front
will move across western Caribbean Fri and Sat, then stall and
weaken Sat night. Strong northerly winds will follow the front.
Large northerly swell will continue to affect the tropical N
Atlantic waters through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from north of Bermuda through 31N74W
to near Lake Okeechobee, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are near the frontal boundary, which is forecast to
lift northward as a warm front through tonight. Fresh to strong
southerly winds will develop east of Florida on Thu as a cold
front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The front will extend from
31N77W to Fort Pierce Florida Fri, from 31N64W to across the
Bahamas to central Cuba on Sat, then stall and weaken on Sun.
Numerous showers and strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of
the front as it moves east of Florida. Otherwise, strong high
pressure over the central Atlantic will support fresh to strong
winds through Fri in the Caribbean approaches, including the
Windward and Mona Passages.

Currently, mainly fresh to strong NE-E winds are observed over
the NE Caribbean and the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles,
particularly from 12N-22N between 49W-68W. These winds were
indicated by earlier satellite-derived wind data.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic forecast waters, high pressure of 1028
mb located near 30N58W will shift eastward over the next several
days as the aforementioned cold front moves E of Florida.

$$
Lewitsky/GR
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