[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Feb 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A low pressure system of 1008 mb has
developed over the NW Gulf of Mexico. The attendant cold front
extends from the low center to the coast of Mexico just N of
Tampico, Mexico. A stationary front stretches from South Florida
to the low pressure. The stationary front will lift north as a
warm front through tonight. At the same time, the new cold front
will move eastward reaching from Mobile, Alabama to near Veracruz,
Mexico tonight. Then, the front will stall there on Thu. Reinforcing
cold air will allow the front to move again across the Gulf waters
late Thu and Fri, exiting the basin by Fri evening. Fresh to strong
winds will follow the front, reaching gale force over the SW Gulf
Thu night and Fri. Seas are forecast to build to 12-14 ft with
the strongest winds.

Caribbean Gale Warning: Near gale force winds are noted within
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia this morning based on recent
satellite-derived wind data. The pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the Caribbean Sea and the Colombian/Panamanian low
will support strong to minimal gale force winds near the coast of
Colombia tonight. These conditions are possible again Sun night.

Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from
04N25W to 01N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 01N-07N between 06W-17W. Scattered
moderate convection is S of the ITCZ W of 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the SW Gulf of Mexico near the
Veracruz area. Please, see the Special Features section for more
details. Buoys across the northern Gulf are reporting fresh to
strong E to SE winds with areas of fog. A recent altimeter pass
indicates seas to 9 ft near the low pressure center located over
the NW Gulf.

Abundant cloudiness, with possible showers, dominates much of the
Gulf region, particularly N of 25N and W of 94W where the frontal
boundaries/low pressure are. A few showers are also noted over
the SE Gulf. Thick low clouds are banked up against the Sierra
Madre Mountains in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer pass provided observations of near gale
force winds within about 90 nm of the cost of Colombia. with
fresh to strong trade winds over the remainder of the central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are over the eastern Caribbean.

Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to
move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing
showers. Showers carried by fresh NE winds are now affecting
Puerto Rico and regional waters, and parts of Dominican Republic.

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
through Fri night. Gale force winds are possible tonight and Sun
night off Colombia. A Gale warning in now in effect. Please, see
the Special Features section for more details.

Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras
will increase to strong to near gale force tonight through Thu
morning as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. The front
will move across the western Caribbean Fri evening into Sat,
reaching front central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sat, then
stall and weaken Sat night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
follow the front. Long period north swell combined with NE wind-
waves will produce sea heights of 7-10 ft over tropical N Atlantic
waters through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extend from 31N75W to near Lake Okeechobee,
Florida. Scattered showers are near the frontal boundary, forecast
to lift northward as a warm front through tonight. Fresh to strong
southerly winds will develop east of Florida on Thu as another
cold front moves across the NE Gulf of Mexico. The front will
enter the Atlantic Ocean just E of NE Florida by early Fri
morning, and extend from 31N74W to South Florida by Fri evening
bringing some shower activity, and cooler temperatures. Then, the
front will reach from 31N68W to central Cuba by Sat morning, and
from 31N60W to central Cuba by Sat night. On Sat, expected fresh
to strong N to NE winds behind the front as a 1035 mb high pressure
settles over the Carolinas. The front is forecast to weaken over
the SW N Atlantic on Sun.

Currently, mainly fresh NE-E winds are observed over the NE Caribbean
and the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles, particularly from
12N-22N between 48W-67W. These winds were sampled by recent scatterometer
data.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic forecast waters, high pressure of 1028
mb located near 31N58W will shift eastward over the next several days
as the aforementioned cold front moves E of Florida.

$$
GR
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