[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171029
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Feb 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 04N20W, and 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from
03N24W, to 01N32W. Scattered moderate isolated strong is from 02N
to 07N between 08W and 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is passing through the southern part of Florida, to
the Gulf of Mexico that is about 60 nm to the NE of the NW corner
of Cuba. The front becomes stationary off the coast of NW Cuba, it
continues to the Yucatan Peninsula. Widely scattered moderate
showers are within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the frontal
boundary.

A north-to-south surface trough is in the western part of the
Gulf of Mexico, along 96W, from 22N to the Texas coast near 29N.
Scattered showers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the
trough axis.

The front will stall and weaken over the SE Gulf today, then lift
north as a warm front tonight. A low pressure system developing
in the NW Gulf tonight will trail a cold front across the basin
through Friday. Strong northerly winds and building seas are
expected across the Gulf behind the front through Friday evening.
Fresh E to SE winds are expected this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the region, and
relatively dry air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery east of 83W, and over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate showers
are observed in the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and showers are
moving with the low level trade wind flow.

High pressure north of the area near 30N58W will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
through Thursday. Winds off Colombia will pulse to near-gale
force tonight, and may reach gale Sunday night. SE winds will
increase in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Thursday as a cold
front approaches the Yucatan Channel. The front will move across
western Caribbean Friday and Saturday, then stall and weaken
Saturday night. Strong north winds will follow the front. Large
north swell will continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters
through Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N75W, to southern Florida, into the
SE Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is within 120 nm east of the front from the Straits of Florida to
30N, and from 30N northward between 70W and the cold front.

A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 30N58W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward, east of the cold front to near 40W.

The cold front will stall today, then lift northward as a warm
front tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop east
of Florida on Thursday as another cold front moves across the
Gulf of Mexico. The front will extend from 31N77W to Fort Pierce
Florida Friday, from 31N64W across the Bahamas to central Cuba on
Saturday, then stall and weaken on Sunday. Numerous showers and
strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front as it moves
east of Florida. Seas will build to around 12 ft east of the
Bahamas Sunday and Sunday night.

$$
Mundell
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