[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Expect NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet
to 11 feet, from 10.5N to 13N between 73W and 78W, in the
coastal waters of Colombia. These conditions will continue for
the next 12 hours or so.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The 24-hour forecast, starting on Thursday night, consists of a
low pressure center to the north of the area. A cold front will
be along 30N85W 19N95W. Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea
heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, to the south of 24N to
the W of the cold front.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 07N12W, to 05N15W, and 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from
03N22W, to 01N33W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
strong is from the monsoon trough southward from 21W eastward,
and from 02N southward between 38W and 41W. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a south central Louisiana coastal 1009
mb low pressure center, to the coast of Mexico near 21N94W.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are to the NW of the cold
front. A warm front extends from the 1009 mb low pressure
center, to SE Louisiana, and then toward the Florida west coast
along 26N. The warm front continues inland in Florida, and it
eventually becomes stationary, and eastward, into the Atlantic
Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 29N northward between 87W and 92W in the coastal
sections.

The current cold front, from a southern Louisiana 1009 mb low
pressure center to near Tuxpan in Mexico, will move across the
basin through Friday. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds
will be behind the cold front. The winds will become gale-force
on Thursday night, in the Veracruz Mexico region, and then
continue through Friday morning. Moderate to fresh E to
SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Mexico during the upcoming
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model, for 250 mb, shows broad upper level anticyclonic
wind flow, with a ridge. The
GFS model for 500 mb, for the same area, shows broad cyclonic
wind flow, with a central Caribbean Sea trough. The GFS model
for 700 mb shows some cyclonic wind flow, mostly in the southern
half of the Caribbean Sea. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the
rest of the Caribbean Sea at 700 mb.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 81W eastward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated
moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level
wind flow.

A surface trough is along 10N76W, to the northern side of
Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is
in the eastern Pacific Ocean coastal areas of Panama and Costa
Rica, from 07N to 11N between 81W and 85W.

High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea
through Friday night. Gale-force winds are expected tonight off
Colombia. Strong SE winds are expected in the NW Caribbean Sea,
and in the Gulf of Honduras,
through Thursday, as a cold front approaches the Yucatan
Channel. The front will move across the western Caribbean Sea on
Friday and on Saturday, then stall and weaken on Saturday night.
Strong north winds will follow the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N75W to 30N78W to 27N80W.
The front reaches inland in Florida, just to the south of the
Lake Okeechobee. The front becomes warm, from just to the south
of Lake Okeechobee, into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 28N to 30N
between 77W and 80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere
from 27N northward from 70W westward.

A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 30N63W. A surface trough
is along 33N35W 23N40W.
A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 33N26W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, on either side
of the surface trough.

Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop to the east of
Florida on Thursday, as a cold front moves across the Gulf of
Mexico. The front will extend from 31N77W to Fort Pierce in
Florida on Friday; from 31N64W across the Bahamas to central
Cuba on Saturday; then stall
and weaken on Sunday. Numerous showers and strong thunderstorms
are possible ahead of the front, as it moves to the east of
Florida. High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will
support fresh to locally strong winds through Friday in the
Caribbean Sea approaches and passages.

$$
mt/dm
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