[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Feb 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
high pressure northeast of the basin and low pressure over
northern Colombia will tighten each night through Thu allowing
for winds offshore of northern Colombia to increase to minimal
gale force after sunset. These winds will diminish just after
sunrise. Seas will build to around 10-13 ft with strongest winds.
Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
Details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal section of Guinea
near 10N14W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to coast
of Brazil near 03N39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of the monsoon trough from 00N-07N between 09W-19W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from
06S-03N between 25W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front continues to press southward across the southeast
Gulf, stretching from southwest Florida near 25N81W to the NE
of the Yucatan near 21N86W where it transitions to a stationary
front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 80
nm southeast of the front. High pressure continues to build
across the rest of the Gulf behind the cold front. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted across the basin with seas 3-6 ft.
Seas are up to 8-9 ft near the front in the eastern Gulf.

Moderate northerly winds over the eastern Gulf will become east
to southeast fresh winds tonight into Wed as the cold front
slows down and becomes stationary over the southeastern Gulf.
The front will lift back north as a warm front from late tonight
through Wed night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop
over the western Gulf tonight as a low pressure system takes
shape along the central Texas coast. This low pressure system
will track east-northeastward across the NW Gulf on Wed dragging
a strong cold front across the western Gulf. This front is
expected to reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to the eastern
Bay of Campeche on Thu afternoon, and exit the southeastern Gulf
Fri afternoon. Gale conditions will be possible behind this front
off Veracruz and over the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri, while
fresh to strong north to northeast winds are expected over the
eastern Gulf and over the southern half of the central Gulf.
Fresh to strong northerly winds will be confined to the eastern
Gulf south of 27N Fri through Sat night, then expand westward
while veering around to the east through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea north of the coast
of Colombia.

Scattered showers are moving are noted across the Yucatan
Passage, the Florida Straits ahead of the cold front approaching
the region. Showers are also moving across the Gulf of Honduras
associated to a 1015 mb low pressure near 17N86W. Farther south,
showers are noted off the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama.
Otherwise, quick moving showers are moving throughout the central
and eastern Caribbean. The latest scatterometer data depicts
fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean with
gentle winds in the western Caribbean. Seas range 3-6 ft with
upwards of 10 ft north of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through
Thu. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale force tonight and Wed
night, then possibly again Sun night. Southeast winds will
increase in the Gulf of Honduras from Wed night into Thu as a
strong cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold
front is expected to move across western Caribbean Fri through
Sat, then become stationary on Sat night. Strong north winds will
follow the front. Large north swell will continue to affect the
tropical N Atlantic waters through Thu, then begin to subside
through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches off the Florida coast from 31N77W to
South Florida coast near 27N80W. A line of thunderstorms is
noted about 80 nm southeast of the front extending from 31N
to 25N between 74W to 78W. A squall line ahead of the front
is analyzed from 30N76W to 27N79W, and a surface trough from
26N79W to the Florida Keys. Fresh westerly winds are noted
behind the front with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead
of it. Seas range 6-9 ft. East of 71W, a 1027mb high pressure
is centered near 29N59W. In the central Atlantic, a trough
extends from a 1015 mb low near 33N37W to 27N37W. Moderate
winds are noted near this feature. Another trough is located
west of the Canary Islands from 31N19W to 21N22W. Light to
gentle winds are noted throughout the region with seas 6-10 ft.


The cold front will become stationary tonight from near 31N74W
to West Palm Beach, Florida, then lift northward as a warm front
Wed and Wed night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop
over the western waters beginning on Thu as the next cold front
moves across the Gulf of Mexico. This front will move east of
Florida late Thu night, reach from near 31N72W to the central
Bahamas and to central Cuba early Fri evening, from 29N65W to
near the Windward Passage Sat and become stationary over the far
southeastern waters Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
follow this front and become fresh to strong east winds, and
expand westward across the southern waters east of 76W from Wed
afternoon through Thu night and diminish Fri. Scattered showers
and strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front as it
moves east of Florida and over the western Atlantic. Seas will
build to around 12 ft east of the Bahamas Sun and Sun night.

$$
MTorres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net