[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162207 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 16 2021

Corrected Gulf of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
high pressure northeast of the basin and low pressure over
northern Colombia will tighten each night through Thu allowing
for winds offshore of northern Colombia to increase to minimal
gale force after sunset. These winds will diminish just after
sunrise. Seas will build to around 10-13 ft with strongest winds.
Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
Details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal section of Guinea
near 10N14W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to 02N31W
to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N-08N between 05W-
26W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from
05S-05N between 27W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...Corrected

A cold front continues to press southward across the southeast
Gulf, stretching from southwest Florida near 26N82W to the
northeast Yucatan near 21N87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted within 60 nm of the front. High pressure continues to
build across the rest of the Gulf behind the cold front. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted across the basin with seas 3-6 ft. Seas
are up to 8-9 ft near the front in the eastern Gulf.

Winds will diminish this afternoon behind the cold front as it
reaches the far southeastern Gulf and stalls. The front will
lift back north as a warm front from late tonight through Wed
night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop over the
western Gulf tonight as a low pressure system takes shape along
the central Texas coast. This low pressure system will track
east- northeastward across the NW Gulf on Wed dragging a strong
cold front across the western Gulf. This front is expected to
reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to the eastern Bay of
Campeche on Thu afternoon, and exit the southeastern Gulf Fri
afternoon. Gale conditions will be possible behind this front
off Veracruz on Fri, while fresh to strong north to northeast
winds are expected over the eastern Gulf and over the southern
half of the central Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
be confined to the eastern Gulf south of 27N Fri through Sat
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea north of the coast
of Colombia.

Scattered thunderstorms are moving across the Yucatan Passage
ahead of the cold front approaching the region. Showers are also
moving across the Gulf of Honduras. Farther south, showers are
noted off the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Otherwise, quick
moving showers are moving throughout the central and eastern
Caribbean. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trade
winds in the eastern and central Caribbean with gentle winds in
the western Caribbean. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 10 ft
north of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through
Thu. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale force at night
through mid week. Southeast winds will increase in the Gulf of
Honduras from Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front
approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is expected
to move across western Caribbean Fri through Sat, then becomes
stationary on Sat night. Strong N winds will follow the front.
Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical N
Atlantic waters through Thu, then begin to subside through Sat
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches off the Florida coast from 31N79W to the
central Florida coast near 28N80W. A line of thunderstorms is
noted north of the Bahamas to the south Florida coast from
31N76W to 25N80W. Fresh westerly winds are noted behind the
front with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it. Seas
range 6-9 ft. In the central Atlantic, a trough extends from a
1018 mb low near 32N39W to 27N41W. Moderate winds are noted near
this feature. Another trough is in the central Atlantic from
28N35W to 22N37W. Light to gentle winds are noted throughout the
region with seas 6-10 ft. A trough is located west of the Canary
Islands from 30N19W to 23N22W.

The cold front will become stationary tonight from near 31N74W
to West Palm Beach, Florida, then lift northward as a warm front
Wed and Wed night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop
over the western waters beginning on Thu as the next cold front
moves across the Gulf of Mexico. This front will move east of
Florida early on Fri, extend from near 31N71W to the central
Bahamas and to central Cuba early Fri evening, and from 28N65W
to near the Windward Passage Sat. Fresh to strong northerly
winds will follow this front. Fresh to strong east winds will
expand westward across the southern waters east of 76W from Wed
afternoon through Thu night.

$$
AReinhart
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