[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Feb 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 04N20W, and 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from
03N24W, to 01N32W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
strong is from 06N southward from 14W eastward, and from 08N
southward between 14W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is passing through the southeastern part of
Florida, to the Gulf of Mexico that is about 60 nm to the NE of
the NW corner of Cuba. The front becomes stationary off the
coast of NW Cuba, it continues to the Yucatan Peninsula, the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and eventually
northwestward, beyond the Texas Big Bend. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 60 nm to 120 nm
on either side of the frontal boundary, from the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec northeastward.

A north-to-south surface trough is in the western part of the
Gulf of Mexico, along 95W/96W, from 21N to the Texas coast near
29N. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on
either side of the trough.

The current slowly-moving cold front, from southwestern Florida
to the northern Yucatan Peninsula, will stall and weaken in the
SE Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The front will move
northward as a warm front through Wednesday night. A developing
low pressure system in the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night
will trail a cold front across the basin through Friday. Strong
northerly winds and building seas are expected across the Gulf
of Mexico, behind the
front, through Friday evening. Fresh E to SE winds are expected
this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model, for 250 mb, shows broad upper level anticyclonic
wind flow, with a ridge. The
GFS model for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, for the same area, shows
broad cyclonic wind flow, with a central Caribbean Sea trough.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 83W eastward, and in the Yucatan Peninsula.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated
moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level
wind flow.





High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea
through Thursday. The wind speeds off Colombia will pulse to
near gale-force tonight and on Wednesday night, then possibly
again on Sunday night. SE winds increase in the Gulf of Honduras
on Wednesday night, as a strong cold front approaches the
Yucatan Channel. The cold front will move across the western
Caribbean Sea on Friday and on Saturday, then stall and weaken
on Saturday night. Strong north winds will follow the front.
Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical N
Atlantic waters through Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N76W, beyond the southernmost
parts of Florida, and into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is
within 120 nm to the east of the cold front from the Straits of
Florida to 30N, and from 30N n northward between 67W and the
cold front.

A stationary front extends from 31N30W, to a 1018 mb low
pressure center that is near 32N36W, and continuing beyond
32N40W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate, are from 23N northward from 40W eastward.

A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 29N58W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward between 40W and the 32N76W-to-SE Florida cold front.

The current cold front, from 31N76W to Palm Beach Florida, will
stall tonight, then move  northward as a warm front on Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop to the east of Florida on Thursday, as the next cold
front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. This front will extend
from 31N77W to Fort Pierce Florida on Friday, and from 31N64W
across the Bahamas to central Cuba on Saturday, then stall and
weaken on Sunday. Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms are
possible ahead of the front as it moves to the east of Florida,
and in the western Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights will build to
around 12 feet to the east of the Bahamas, on Sunday and Sunday
night.

$$
mt/dm
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