[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Feb 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front with attendant
low pressure will form off the coast of southern Texas tonight.
The front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico by
early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly winds
are expected in the northwestern and west-central Gulf late
tonight through Monday afternoon to the west of the low pressure
and behind the front. Seas will increase to 17 ft Mon over the
west central Gulf near the coast of Mexico. Winds and seas will
diminish across the region by early Tue. See the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from
04N20W to 02N35W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted 02N to 04N between 27W and 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. See the
Special Features section for details.

A stationary front reaches from Cedar Key, Florida to 1011 mb low
pressure near 29N85W, to the central Gulf near 25N90W. A sharp
surface trough reaching from off the central coast of Texas to
near 20N93W. Buoy and platform data are showing winds over the
far northwest Gulf starting to increase as a low pressure area
forms. Seas are building over the northwest Gulf as winds
increase, and wave heights are likely reaching 5 to 7 ft
currently. Gentle to moderate winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are
observed elsewhere. A few showers may be ongoing over the
southeast Gulf in a fairly broken line from off Fort Myers,
Florida to near Cancun, Mexico.

A cold front will form tonight and extend southward from the low
pressure starting to form over the northwest Gulf. By Mon
afternoon, the low pressure will be south of Mobile, AL, and the
cold front will extend from there to south of Veracruz Mexico.
The front will reach from Sarasota Florida to Cancun Mexico by
early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly winds
are expected in the northwestern and west-central Gulf late
tonight through Monday afternoon to the west of the low pressure
and behind the front. A wintry mix of precipitation is likely
along the coastlines of Texas and Louisiana tonight and Mon
morning. Winds and seas will diminish across the region by early
Tue. The next cold front will enter the western Gulf late Wed,
then exit east of the basin by Fri afternoon. Strong to near gale
force winds are likely to precede and follow this front across
the basin, with gale force winds possible off Veracruz Thu.

On a side note, strong westerly winds are observed east of the
Sierra Madre Occidental over northern Mexico. This pattern may
persist through the early part of the week. These winds could
reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level
trough and high terrain in that region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds
across most of the central and eastern parts of the basin, with
mainly moderate winds in the western portion of the basin. Fresh
to strong winds are likely still occurring south of Hispaniola to
Colombia and western Venezuela. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft
over the eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft in the
northwest Caribbean. A few thunderstorms are evident over the
far western Yucatan Channel, near Cancun. Elsewhere, high
pressure north of the area is allowing for dry conditions to
prevail, aside from scattered fast-moving showers embedded in
the trade wind flow in the central Caribbean.

The high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
through the middle of this week. By that time, winds off
Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night, with gales
possible Tue night and Wed night. SE winds will increase in the
Gulf of Honduras on Wed night/early Thu also as a strong cold
front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is
expected to enter the NW Caribbean Fri, with strong N winds behind
the front. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical
N Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles, through
the middle of this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W, a cluster of thunderstorms is active along a stationary
front off the coast of Jacksonville, Florida. No significant
weather is noted elsewhere. A ridge extends from 1025 mb high
pressure near 28N55W eastward into northeast Florida. This
pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate SE winds mostly north
of 22N, and moderate to fresh E winds south of 22N. Seas are
generally 4 to 6 ft in open waters.

For the forecast, high pressure over the region will support
fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola through Thu night.
Fresh to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon
night and Tue ahead of a cold front that will move off Florida
Tue. The front will become stationary Tue night from 31N74W to
West Palm Beach Florida before lifting north and dissipating Wed
night. Winds will increase from N of Hispaniola through the
Bahamas and east of Florida early Thu as a cold front moves E
through the Gulf of Mexico. This cold front will move E of
Florida early Fri, and extend from 31N71W to central Cuba Fri
evening. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front.

Elsewhere, east of the 1025 mb high pressure near 28N55W, a cold
front reaches from near Madeira to 25N45W. Mostly gentle to
moderate winds persist north of 20N, with moderate to fresh
trades prevalent south of 20N, mainly south of the high pressure
west of 50W. Large NW swell in excess of 8 ft dominates mainly
east of 55W, with highest seas over the discussion area possibly
reaching 14 ft near 32N30W.

Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north
Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle
of the week.

$$
Christensen
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