[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Feb 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front with attendant
low pressure has formed off the coast of southern Texas.
The front will reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to Cancun, Mexico
by early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly
winds are expected in the northwestern and west-central Gulf late
tonight through Monday afternoon to the west of the low pressure
and behind the front. Seas will increase to 17 ft Mon over the
west central Gulf near the coast of Mexico. Winds and seas will
diminish across the region by early Tue. See the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean off the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from
04N20W to 00N37W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 2N-5N between 11W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. See the
Special Features section for details.

As of 0300 UTC: A stationary front reaches from Cedar Key,
Florida to a 1013 mb low pressure near 29N85W, to the central
Gulf near 26N90W. To the west, a 1009 mb low has formed off the
southern Texas coast near 25N95W where a sharp trough previously
was located. This low pressure is associated with a cold front
that extends to Tampico, Mexico, and a warm front that extends
eastward and connects with the stalled boundary near 26N90W. Buoy
and platform data are showing winds increasing to near gale force
behind the low. Convection is ongoing in the far northwestern gulf
behind the system with seas ranging 5-7 ft. Ahead of the front, a
recent pass ASCAT reveals gentle to moderate easterly flow.

The cold front will and the associated low
pressure will move eastward across the basin. Gale force
northerly winds are expected in the northwestern and
west-central Gulf late tonight through Monday evening to the west
of the low pressure and behind the front. A wintry mix of
precipitation is likely along the coastlines of Texas and
Louisiana tonight and Mon morning. Winds and seas will diminish
across the region by early Tue. The next cold front will enter the
western Gulf late Wed, then exit east of the basin by Fri
afternoon. Strong to near gale force winds are likely to precede
and follow this front across the basin, with gale force winds
possible off Veracruz Thu.

On a side note, strong westerly winds are observed east of the
Sierra Madre Occidental over northern Mexico. This pattern may
persist through the early part of the week. These winds could
reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level
trough and high terrain in that region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds
across most of the central and eastern parts of the basin, with
mainly moderate winds in the western portion of the basin. Fresh
to strong winds are likely still occurring south of Hispaniola
to Colombia and western Venezuela. Seas are estimated to be 6 to
9 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft in the
northwest Caribbean. A few thunderstorms are evident over the
waters south of Cuba. Elsewhere, high pressure north of the area
is allowing for dry conditions to prevail, aside from scattered
fast-moving showers embedded in the trade wind flow in the central
Caribbean.

The high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
through the middle of this week. By that time, winds off
Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night, with gales
possible Tue night and Wed night. SE winds will increase in the
Gulf of Honduras on Wed night/early Thu also as a strong cold
front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is
expected to enter the NW Caribbean Fri, with strong N winds
behind the front. Large north swell will continue to affect the
tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles,
through the middle of this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W, a cluster of thunderstorms is active along a
stationary front off the coast of Jacksonville, Florida.
Southerly winds within 100 nm east of the front, north of 28N are
fresh to strong. No significant weather is noted elsewhere. A
ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure near 28N52W eastward into
northeast Florida. This pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate
SE winds mostly north of 22N, and moderate to fresh E winds south
of 22N. Seas are generally 5-10 ft in open waters.

For the forecast, high pressure over the region will support
fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola through Thu night.
Fresh to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon
night and Tue ahead of a cold front that will move off Florida on
Tue. The front will become stationary Tue night from 31N74W to
West Palm Beach Florida before lifting north and dissipating Wed
night. Winds will increase from N of Hispaniola through the
Bahamas and east of Florida early Thu as a cold front moves E
through the Gulf of Mexico. This cold front will move E of Florida
early Fri, and extend from 31N71W to central Cuba Fri evening.
Fresh to strong winds will follow the front.

Elsewhere, east of the 1025 mb high pressure near 28N52W, the
cold front previously reaching from near Madeira to 25N45W has
dissipated. A stationary front enters our area near 32N27W
extending to 26N42W. No significant weather is associated with
this front. Mostly gentle to moderate winds persist north of 20N,
with moderate to fresh trades prevalent south of 20N, mainly south
of the high pressure west of 50W. Large NW swell in excess of 8
ft dominates mainly east of 55W, with the highest seas over the
discussion area possibly reaching 14 ft near 32N30W.

Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north
Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle
of the week.

$$
Mora
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