[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Feb 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front with attendant
low pressure will move off the coast of Texas tonight. The front
will cross the Gulf on Mon and Tue and reach the Florida Straits
by late Tue before stalling out. Gale force northerly winds are
expected in the northwestern Gulf by early Monday to the west of
the low pressure and behind the front. Seas will increase to 14 ft
with the strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish across the
region by Mon night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 10N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
01N35W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
90 nm on either side of the axis west of 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. See the
Special Features section for details.

A stationary front enters the Gulf through the Apalachee Bay
near 30N84W and extends SW to 24N91W. SE of the front, a 1010 mb
surface low is centered near 26N87W, with a trough extending from
29N83W through the low to 24N89W. Associated scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are within 150 n mi east of 85W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds north and west
of the front, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.
Another surface trough is over the western Gulf and extends from
27N95W to 20N95W supporting scattered showers.

The low will merge with the stationary front today and this
system will weaken through tonight. A strong cold front with
associated low pressure will move off the coast of Texas tonight,
with gale force northerly winds expected over the northwestern
Gulf on Monday behind the front. The next cold front will enter
the western Gulf Wed night, and reach from the Florida Big Bend to
the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night. Strong to near gale force winds
are likely to precede and follow this front across the basin, with
gale-force winds possible off Veracruz Thu.

On a side note, the GFS and ECMWF global models indicate strong
westerly winds east of the Sierra Madre Occidental over
northern Mexico through early next week. These winds could reach
gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough
and high terrain in that region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds
across most of the central and eastern parts of the basin, with
mainly moderate winds in the western portion of the basin. Fresh
to strong winds are likely still occurring south of Hispaniola to
Colombia and western Venezuela. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft
over the eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft in the
northwest Caribbean. High pressure north of the area is allowing
for dry conditions to prevail, aside from scattered fast-moving
showers embedded in the trade wind flow in the central Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
through the middle of next week. By that time, winds off
Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night, with gales
possible Wed night/early Thu. SE winds will increase in the Gulf
of Honduras on Wed night/early Thu also as a strong cold front
approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. Large north swell will
continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of
the Lesser Antilles, through the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 70W, a stationary front extends from 31N79W to 29N81W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted south of
the front moving off the Florida coast, north of 28N. Moderate to
fresh winds are occurring within 200 n mi of the front with seas
building to near 7 ft. To the east, a 1027 mb surface high is
centered near 29N53W and broad ridging dominates across most of
the Atlantic basin. Moderate to fresh E winds are evident south of
22N, to the south of the ridge. A weak cold front extends into the
discussion area near 31N28W to 26N43W with no significant weather
associated with this portion of the front. Seas in open waters
are mostly 5-10 ft.


For the forecast, the stationary front will lift north of the
area tonight, while the weak cold front dissipates over the next
couple of days. High pressure over the region will support fresh
to occasionally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Wed.
Fresh to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon
night and Tue ahead of a weak cold front that will move off
Florida Tue. The front will become stationary Wed from 31N74W to
Vero Beach Florida before lifting north and dissipating Wed night.
Winds will increase from N of Hispaniola through the Bahamas and
east of Florida Thu as a cold front moves E through the Gulf of
Mexico, and the pressure gradient tightens in the W Atlantic.

Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north
Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle
of the week.

$$
Latto
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