[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Feb 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front with attendant
low pressure will move off the coast of Texas on Sun night. The
front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico by early
Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly winds are
expected in the northwestern Gulf by early Monday to the west of
the low pressure and behind the front. Seas will increase to 15 ft
with strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish across the
region by Mon night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone, Africa near 08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N20W to 02N35W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 90 nm on either side of the axis west of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. See the
Special Features section for details.

A stationary front enters the Gulf through the Apalachee bay
near 30N84W and extends SW to 23N92W. SE of the front, a 1010 mb
surface low is centered near 26N88W, with trough extending from
28N83W to the low to 24N89W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh
winds north of the front, while light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere.

The stationary front will weaken through tonight. A strong cold
front with associated low pressure will move off the coast of
Texas tonight, with gale force northerly winds expected over the
northwestern Gulf on Monday behind the front. The next cold front
will enter the western Gulf Wed night, and reach from the Florida
Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night. Strong to near gale
force winds are likely to precede and follow this front across the
basin, with gale-force winds possible off Veracruz Thu.

On a side note, the GFS and ECMWF global models indicate strong
westerly winds east of the Sierra Madre Occidental over
northern Mexico through early next week. These winds could reach
gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough
and high terrain in that region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds
across most of the eastern and western parts of the basin, with
fresh to strong trades south of Hispaniola to Colombia and
western Venezuela. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft over the
eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft in the northwest
Caribbean. High pressure north of the area is allowing for dry
conditions to prevail, aside from scattered fast-moving showers
embedded in the trade wind flow in the central Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
through the middle of next week. By that time, winds off
Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night, with gales
possible Wed night/early Thu. SE winds will increase in the Gulf
of Honduras on Wed night/early Thu also as a strong cold front
approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. Large north swell will
continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of
the Lesser Antilles, through the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 70W, a stationary front extends from 32N77W to 29N81W.
Scattered showers are noted south of the front moving off the
Florida coast, north of 29N. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds off
the coast of northeast Florida south of the front are starting to
increase to moderate to fresh with seas building to 7 ft. To the
east, a 1025 mb surface high is centered near 32N53W and broad
ridging dominates across most of the Atlantic basin. Moderate to
fresh E winds are evident south of 22N, to the south of the ridge.
Seas in open waters are mostly 5-10 ft.

For the forecast, the front will lift north of the area Sun
night. High pressure over the region will support fresh to
occasionally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Wed. Fresh
to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon
night and Tue ahead of a weak cold front that will move off
Florida Tue. The front will become stationary Wed from 31N74W
to Vero Beach Florida before lifting north and dissipating Wed
night. Winds will increase from N of Hispaniola through the
Bahamas and east of Florida Thu as a cold front moves E through
the Gulf of Mexico, and the pressure gradient tightens in the W
Atlantic.

Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north
Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle
of the week.

$$
ERA
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