[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Feb 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 11
feet, are present, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from 11N
to 13N between 74W and 76W. The wind speeds will slow down to
less than gale-force by Friday morning. Please, refer to the
following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W, to
04N20W, to the Equator along 30W, to the Equator along 38W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in clusters
is from 05N southward between 17W and 44W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through: the Florida Panhandle, into the
north central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of
Mexico along 23N/24N. The front continues northwestward into
Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the
east of the front between 83W and 89W; from 94W westward from
the cold front southward; and nearly everywhere to the northwest
of the cold front. Areas of low clouds and patchy dense fog also
are in the coastal plains and coastal waters from Texas to
Florida.

The current cold front, from southern Louisiana to NE Mexico,
will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of
Campeche on Friday night, then stall and weaken from Tampa
Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday night. A strong
cold front is expected to move off the coast of Texas on Monday,
and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on
Tuesday. Fresh to strong north winds are expected in the western
Gulf of Mexico through Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model, for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, for the
south and south central sections of the Caribbean Sea, shows
that broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow is on top of broad
cyclonic wind flow at the middle levels of the atmosphere and at
700 mb.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, nearly everywhere in the Caribbean Sea. The only
unaffected part is the NW part of the area, that is to the
northwest of the line that runs from the central coast of Cuba
in the Caribbean Sea to the central coast of Honduras.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow, mainly in the areas that are:
from 74W eastward, and from 14N northward from 74W westward.

High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday
night. Gale-force winds are expected off the coast of Colombia
tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds are possible in the Gulf of
Honduras through Saturday morning. Large north swell will affect
the tropical N Atlantic Ocean through the middle of the next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 35N70W, to the coast of South
Carolina along 32N/33N. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in
the area of the Bahamas, and more to the northwest of the
Bahamas, from 24N northward from 75W westward.

A cold front passes through 32N39W to 29N50W. A surface trough
continues from 29N50W to 29N63W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 135 nm to the east and
southeaste of the cold front from 29N to 32N.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 30N20W, to 27N30W, to 26N60W, and to the Florida east
coast along 28N.

A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Saturday
night. The front will stall in the NW forecast waters on Sunday,
then move to the north of the area on Sunday night. High
pressure across the region will support fresh to occasionally
strong winds to the north of
Hispaniola through Sunday night. A weak cold front will move to
the east of Florida on Tuesday.

$$
mt/dm
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