[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112310
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds are expected to pulse to gale-force
at night off the coast of Colombia during the next few days.
These strong winds are associated with a combination of high
pressure ridging across the subtropics and low pressure over
Colombia. Seas are expected to build to 11 ft when the winds are
at their strongest. Please refer to the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to
03N21W to 00N32W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
the ITCZ from 01N-04N between 19W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is slowly moving southeastward across the western
Gulf of Mexico, and currently extends from southeastern Louisiana
to north-central Mexico. Behind the front, fresh to strong
northeasterly winds and scattered showers are widespread. South
and east of the front, weather conditions are mostly fair and winds
are light to moderate out of the southeast or south.

The cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward and
extend from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico, Fri
morning, from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche
Fri night and from Tampa Bay to the Yucatan Peninsula Sat night.
Strong to near gale force winds will affect the far western Gulf
through Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above for details on ongoing
gales off the coast of Colombia.

Scatterometer data from earlier today revealed fresh to strong
trades continuing to dominate the central Caribbean, where seas
are in the 7-11 ft. range. Elsewhere, trade winds are moderate
to fresh. Dry air in the mid- and upper-levels exists across
much of the region, which is supporting generally fair weather.
However, as is typical, there are a few patches of low-level
clouds and embedded showers moving within the trade wind flow.

Surface ridging N of the area will maintain the fresh to strong
trade winds over the central and southwest Caribbean through Mon
night. Gale force winds will continue to pulse off the coast of
Colombia tonight, with near gale conditions prevailing through
Sat. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will
prevail through Sat morning. Otherwise, NE swell will affect the
tropical N Atlantic waters through the middle of next week with
building seas to 10 ft there.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Generally quiet weather prevails across the western Atlantic,
with most of the active weather occurring north of the region
near and north of the Carolina coast. Farther east, a cold front
enters the area near 32N43W and extends to 29N51W with a surface
trough extending from there to 29N62W. A narrow line of showers
is occurring along the front. Otherwise, high pressure ridging
dominates the rest of the basin, causing fair weather and moderate
to fresh trades.

Swell generated from a strong low pressure system east of the
Canadian Maritimes has spread south to areas E of 60W and N of
20N. This is causing seas of 8 to 17 ft. To the south and west
of this area of swell, seas average 5 to 7 ft.

Moderate to locally fresh return flow will prevail across the
region through Sat night, when a weak cold front will move off
the SE U.S. coast. The front will stall over the NW forecast
waters Sun and lift N of the area Mon. Surface ridging will
continue to be the dominant feature afterward, supporting fresh
to strong winds at night between Hispaniola, and the Turks and
Caicos.

$$
Cangialosi
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