[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Feb 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 01200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: NE-to-E gale-force winds and sea heights
ranging from 9 ft to 11 ft are present in the coastal waters off
Colombia from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. The wind speeds
will slow down to less than gale-force later this morning, then
return to gale- force tonight. Winds will subside again Fri
morning, but near gale conditions will continue to pulse through
the weekend. Please refer to the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N11W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to
04N23W to 00N30W, then continues along the equator to around
35W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along the
ITCZ  from 02S-07N between 19W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front entered the Gulf this morning stretching from the
Louisiana coast near 30N93W to the southern tip of the Texas
coastline. Fresh NE winds are behind the cold front along with
scattered moderate convection within 50 nm of the boundary.
East of the front, winds are generally moderate to fresh out
of the SE. Areas of fog are beginning to dissipate along the
northern Gulf coast, however, fog remains prevalent along the
Florida coastline east of Pensacola to the Apalachee Bay.
Foggy conditions will further decrease this afternoon.
Elsewhere, dry conditions prevail with generally moderate
SE winds.

The cold front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to
Veracruz, Mexico Fri morning, from the Florida Big Bend
to the eastern Bay of Campeche Fri night and from Tampa
Bay to the Yucatan Peninsula Sat night. Strong to near
gale force winds will affect the far western Gulf tonight
through Sat night. Otherwise, dense fog is expected to
prevail along the northern and eastern Gulf through this
evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above for details on ongoing
gales off the coast of Colombia.

Scatterometer data from this morning revealed fresh to strong
trades continuing to dominate the central Caribbean, elsewhere,
trade winds are moderate to fresh. Deep layer dry air is over
most of the basin, which supports mostly clear skies and fair
weather, with the exception of the region east of the Yucatan
Peninsula where showers and thunderstorms are noted. Seas range
from 7-11 ft in the central Caribbean.

Surface ridging N of the area extending to the northern
Caribbean will maintain the fresh to strong trade winds over the
central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Mon night. Gale
force winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia tonight, with
near gale conditions prevailing through Sat. Moderate to fresh E
to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh to
strong this evening and prevail through Sat morning. Otherwise,
NE swell will affect the tropical N Atlantic waters tonight
through the middle of next week with building seas to 10 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 1500 UTC: a cold front emerged off the southeast coast of
the U.S. allowing for a line of showers and thunderstorms about
120 nm offshore of the NE Florida coast. Fog is also occurring
off the U.S. coast north of Jacksonville beach, FL. Further
east, a pair of cold fronts are draped over the northernmost
parts of the area. The first is noted from 32N49W to 29N55W,
then extends westward to 30N66W. To the east, the second cold
front extends from 32N20W to 29N29W where it begins to dissipate
and stretches to 27N44W. No significant precipitation is
associated with these fronts. High pressure ridging dominates
the rest of the basin, allowing for moderate to fresh trades.

Swell generated from strong low pressure east of the Canadian
Maritimes has spread S to areas E of 60W and N of 20N. This is
causing seas of 8 to 17 ft. To the S and W of this area of swell,
seas average 5 to 7 ft.

Moderate to locally fresh return flow will prevail across the
region through Sat night, when a weak cold front will move off
the SE U.S. coast. The front will stall over the NW forecast
waters Sun and lift N of the area Mon. Surface ridging will
continue to be the dominant feature afterward, supporting fresh
to strong winds at night between Hispaniola, and Turks and
Caicos.

$$
Mora
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