[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Feb 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NE-to-E gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to
10 feet are present in the coastal waters of Colombia from 11N to
12N between 74W and 76W. The wind speeds will slow down to less
than gale-force later this morning, then return to gale- force
tonight. Winds will subside again Fri morning, but near gale
conditions will continue to pulse through the weekend. Please
refer to the following website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N11W, to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to
00N28W, then continues along the equator to around 35W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ
between 19W and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has moved off the Texas coast early this morning.
Scattered moderate convection is located along and behind this
boundary, within 90 nm of the Texas coast. Areas of fog, some
dense, encompass most waters within 120 nm of the coast from Texas
to Florida, north of 26N. Fresh NE winds occur behind the cold
front. Elsewhere across the Gulf, dry conditions prevail with
generally moderate SE winds.

Ahead of the cold front, throughout the northern and eastern
Gulf, areas of fog prevail into Fri due to very warm moist air
over cooler waters. The front will track slowly SE, reaching from
near Mobile Bay to the western Bay of Campeche Fri, and
stretching from the Florida Panhandle to eastern Bay of Campeche
Sat. Strong to near gale force winds will affect the far western
Gulf tonight through Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above for details on ongoing
gales off the coast of Colombia.

Relatively dry air is in place over most of the Caribbean, but a
cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing within 90 nm offshore of
Hispaniola. Fresh trades continue, except for strong over portions
of the central Caribbean. Seas average 5 to 7 ft.

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds over the central and portions of the SW
Caribbean through Mon night. Gale force winds will pulse off the
coast of Colombia early this morning and again tonight, with near
gale conditions prevailing through the weekend. Fresh to strong
winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward
Passage through Fri. Otherwise, NE swell will affect the tropical
N Atlantic waters tonight through early next week with building
seas to 9 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of cold fronts are drapped over the northernmost parts of
the area. Neither are expected to make progress farther south. The
first is noted from 32N57W to 30N67W to 32N73W. To the east, the
second cold front extends from 32N22W to 26N40W, where it becomes
stationary and stretches to 29N57W. High pressure dominates from
23N to 30N across the basin, bringing dry conditions and mainly
gentle winds. Some scattered convection is noted offshore northern
Florida, N of 30N and W of 73W. Fog is also occurring in this
same area. Farther S, moderate to fresh trades winds are
occurring.

Swell generated from strong low pressure east of the Canadian
Maritimes has spread S to areas E of 60W and N of 20N. This is
causing seas of 8 to 14 ft. To the S and W of this area of swell,
seas average 5 to 7 ft.

High pressure will dominate until Sat night, when a cold front
will move off the SE U.S. coast. This front will stall just
offshore into Mon, with moderate southerly winds ahead of it over
much of the area. Surface ridging extending across the region will
continue to support fresh to strong winds at night between
Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos, and the approaches of the
Windward Passage into Sun.

$$
KONARIK
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