[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to
10 feet, are present, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from
11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. The wind speeds will slow down
to less than gale-force by Thursday morning, and then return to
gale-force at night on
Thursday. Please, refer to the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N11W, to 04N18W.
The ITCZ continues from 04N18W, to the Equator along 25W, to
01S28W, and to the Equator along 40W. Precipitation: scattered
to numerous strong in clusters is within 100 nm to the north of
the ITCZ between 19W and 23W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is in the coastal plains and the coastal waters of
Texas. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong covers SE Louisiana. Areas of low clouds and patchy dense
fog are in the coastal plains and coastal waters from Texas to
Florida.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, are to the east of the line that runs from the Deep
South of Texas to the Yucatan Channel. The clouds and isolated
moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level
wind flow.

A stationary front along the northern Gulf coast has dissipated.
Areas of fog prevail in the northern Gulf of Mexico, due to very
warm moist air that is on top of cooler waters. The fog is
forecast to continue along the northern Gulf waters into
Thursday night. A cold front will move off the Texas coast on
Thursday, then reach from the Florida Panhandle to the western
Bay of Campeche early on Friday, where it will stall through
Saturday. Strong to near gale-force winds will affect the far
western Gulf of Mexico from Thursday night through Saturday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, everywhere in the Caribbean Sea.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow. One such area is from 13N
northward from 76W westward. A second area is to the south of
Hispaniola.

High pressure to the north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds in  the central and SW parts of the
Caribbean Sea through Monday night. Gale-force winds will pulse,
off the coast of Colombia, tonight and on Thursday night, with
near gale-force wind conditions prevailing into Sunday night.
Fresh to strong winds also are expected in the Gulf of Honduras
and in the Windward Passage, into Friday. NE swell will affect
the tropical N Atlantic Ocean from Thursday night through early
next week, with building seas to 9 feet.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes just to the south of Bermuda, to 31N71W. The
front is stationary from 31N71W to 32N77W. The front is warm
from 32N77W to a 1019 mb low pressure center that is near
31N81W. A cold front continues from the 1019 mb low pressure
center, to SE Georgia. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong covers the waters that are from 30N to
33N between 73W and 78W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and other possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 26N northward
from 60W westward.

A cold front passes through 32N26W to 28N38W. The front becomes
stationary at 28N38W, and it continues to 28N59W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are from 26N northward between 20W and 60W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean,
on either side of the cold front. A 1021 mb high pressure center
is near 30N42W. A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 27N26W.

A stationary front, previously in the far NW waters, has
dissipated. A cold front will move off the SE U.S.A. coast on
Saturday evening, then stall just offshore through at least
Sunday night. A surface ridge, extending across the region, will
continue to support fresh to strong winds at night, between
Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos, and the approaches of the
Windward Passage, into Sunday.

$$
mt/sk
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