[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean
Sea will maintain pulsing gale force winds off the coast of
Colombia tonight and Thu night, with near gale conditions
prevailing into Sun night. Seas are forecast to build to around 11
ft near Colombia. Please refer to the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to
02N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-03N
between 19W-21W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted south of 01N to the north coast of Brazil between 40W-
47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A disjointed stationary front extends from southern Georgia to
along the coast of the Florida Panhandle to New Orleans,
Louisiana, then continuing across central Louisiana to just inland
along coastal Texas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are occurring near the boundary but remaining over inland areas.
Warm and moist southerly flow in the northern Gulf moving across
the cool sea surface temperatures will continue to support the
development and maintenance of areas of dense fog through at least
early Thu. Reduced visibilities to 1 nm or less will remain
possible in the areas of dense fog, especially in the coastal
waters. Gentle to moderate SE-S winds dominate the basin, along
with 2-4 ft seas.

The stationary front is expected to remain inland tonight. A cold
front will move off the Texas coast Thu, then reach from the
Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche early Fri, where it will
stall through Sat evening. Strong to near gale force winds will
affect the far western Gulf early Fri through Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Scatterometer data from earlier revealed fresh to strong trades
continuing to dominate the central Caribbean, with moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere. Clusters of isolated to widely scattered
showers are embedded in the trade wind flow. Seas range from 7-10
ft in the central Caribbean, and 3-6 ft across the remainder of
the basin.

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds over the central and portions of the SW
Caribbean through Mon night. Moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf
of Honduras will increase to fresh to strong at night Wed through
Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage
tonight. Otherwise, NE swell will affect the tropical N Atlantic
waters Thu night through early next week with building seas to 9
ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Low pressure northeast of Bermuda extends a cold front southwest
through 32N62W to 28N68W, continuing as a dissipating stationary
front to 28N73W northwest to near the border of South Carolina and
Georgia. A surface trough extends from 31N79.5W to near the
Florida Space Coast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible near the front and trough. Areas of dense fog with
reduced visibilities will develop overnight tonight in the
coastal waters of northern Florida and Georgia. Winds in the
western Atlantic are mainly gentle to moderate, except moderate to
fresh trades prevail south of 22N. Seas are 4-6 ft across the
western Atlantic, except 3 ft or less west of the Bahamas.

Two 1022 mb high pressure centers centered near 30N46W and near
26N29W, allow for gentle to moderate trades to prevail across
most of the basin, except locally fresh south of 20N. A cold
front exists between the highs, extending from 32N28W to 27N40W
where it becomes stationary and continues west-northwest to
28N54W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
north of 27N between the western high and 60W due to a mid to
upper level disturbance diving east-southeast. Seas north of the
front range from 9-17 ft, reaching 26 ft north of the area.

The front in the western Atlantic will dissipate tonight. Return
flow will establish across the region on Thu ahead of the next
cold front forecast to enter the NW offshore waters Sat evening.
Surface ridging extending across the region will continue to
support fresh to strong winds at night between Hispaniola and
Turks and Caicos, and the approaches of the Windward Passage
through Sat night.

$$
Lewitsky
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