[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101813
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Feb 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.


Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE-E winds continue over the
south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through this
morning.  Gales will return again during the overnight hours
tonight. Seas are forecast to build to 11ft near Colombia. Gale
force winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia tonight and
Thu night, with near gale conditions prevailing into Sun night.
Please, refer to the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to
03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-06N
between 36W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front stretches from near Apalachicola, Florida
along the northern Gulf coast to 29N94W. Convection previously
associated with this weakening boundary has dissipated. Fog
prevails about 60 nm off the coast of the U.S. throughout the
northern Gulf waters and west of the Florida peninsula due to
very moist air over cooler waters. Winds are generally gentle to
moderate out of the east, with seas of 2 to 4 ft.

The stationary front is expected to lift N today while
dissipating. Fog will continue to be possible into the late
week. A cold front will move off the coast Thu, then reach from
the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche early Fri, where it
will stall through Sat evening. Strong to near gale force winds
will affect the far western Gulf early Fri through Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Scatterometer data from this morning revealed fresh to strong
trades continuing to dominate the central Caribbean, with
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Clusters of isolated showers
and thunderstorms are embedded in the trade wind flow. Seas
range from 3 to 6 ft across the basin, with swell heights
increasing near the waters adjacent to Colombia.

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds over the central and portions of the SW
Caribbean into the start of next week. Gale force winds will
pulse off the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night, with near
gale conditions prevailing into Sun night. Moderate to fresh
winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh to strong
at night Wed through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 1500 UTC: The previous stationary front extending from the
northeast Florida coast near St. Augustine to 32N72W is now
dissipating. Winds in the western Atlantic are gentle to
moderate. Two high pressure centers, a 1025 mb high centered
near 31N51W and a 1022 mb high centered near 27N24W, allow for
gentle to moderate trades to prevail across most of the basin. A
cold front exists between the highs, extending from 32N30W to
27N43W where it becomes stationary and continues west to 27N54W.
Winds are fresh from the south ahead of the front and north of
28N. Seas behind the boundary range from 9-18 ft, reaching 21 ft
north of the area.

The stationary front extending in the western Atlantic will lift
N of the area as a warm front tonight. Dense fog is forecast to
prevail over NE Florida adjacent waters near the frontal
boundary through noon today. Return flow will establish across
the region on Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter
the NW offshore waters Sat evening. Surface ridge extending
across the region will continue to support fresh to strong winds
at night between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos, and the
approaches of the Windward Passage through Sat.


$$
Mora
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