[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Feb 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Liberia near 07N12W to
06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 00N32W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ from 00N-03N between
19W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico,
and currently extends from the Florida panhandle to near Tampico
Mexico. Behind the front, fresh to strong northerly winds and
widespread showers or thunderstorms are occurring. South and east
of the front, weather conditions are mostly fair and winds are
light to moderate out of the southeast or south.

The cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward to
extend from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche
tonight, and from Tampa Bay to the Yucatan Peninsula Sat night.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the western Gulf
through tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer data from the past few hours revealed near-gale
force winds near the northern coast of Colombia, and fresh to
strong trades elsewhere across the central Caribbean, where seas
are in the 7-11 ft range. Elsewhere, trade winds are moderate to
fresh. Dry air in the mid-and upper-levels exists across much of
the region, which is supporting generally fair weather. However,
as is typical, there are a few patches of low-level clouds and
embedded showers moving within the trade wind flow.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central Caribbean through Tue night. Fresh
to strong SE winds are possible in the Gulf of Honduras through
Sat morning. Large north swell will affect the tropical N Atlantic
waters through the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Generally quiet weather prevails across the western Atlantic.
Farther east, a cold front enters the area near 32N35W and
extends to 28N50W. A narrow line of showers is occurring along
the front. Otherwise, high pressure ridging dominates the rest of
the basin, causing fair weather and moderate to fresh trades.

Swell generated from a strong low pressure system in the north-
central Atlantic has spread south to areas E of 50W and N of 15N,
causing seas of 10 to 14 ft. To the south and west of this area
of swell, seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range.

A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sat night. The
front will stall in the NW forecast waters on Sun then lift north
of the area Sun night. High pressure over the region will support
fresh to locally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Sun
night. A weak cold front will move off Florida on Tue.

$$
Mundell
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