[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092220
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean
Sea will continue to support pulsing gale force winds off the
coast of Colombia tonight and Wed night, with near gale conditions
prevailing through Fri. Seas will build to 11-12 ft with the
strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast
product at the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to along the
equator and to the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from the equator-10N between 17W-31W

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the northern Florida Peninsula to
1018 mb low pressure located just offshore of the Florida
Panhandle near 30N86.5W, continuing west-southwest to near the
central Texas coast. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 60-120 nm southeast-south of the front and low to the
east of 87W. Reduced visibilities in dense fog are noted across
the coastal waters. A surface trough is analyzed in the western
Gulf from 26N93W to 18N95W. No significant precipitation is
associated with this feature. Gentle to moderate SE-S flow
prevails south of the front, with gentle NE-E winds north of the
front. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less, except to 4 ft in the central
Gulf in the lee of the trough where the strongest winds are noted.

The low and front will weaken and dissipate through early Wed.
Surface ridging will develop on Wed providing moderate return flow
through Thu. This may allow areas of dense fog to persist across
the northern Gulf. A cold front will move off the Texas coast by
late Thu and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of
Campeche Fri evening, where it will stall through Sat evening.
Strong to near gale force winds will affect the far western Gulf
early Fri into Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trades continue to dominate the central
Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas of 8-12
ft can be found in the central Caribbean, 4-7 ft in the eastern
Caribbean, and 3-6 ft in the western Caribbean. Dry conditions
prevail, aside from isolated fast moving showers embedded in the
trade wind flow across the northern Caribbean.

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will continue to support
fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean and
portions of the SW Caribbean through Sun night. Moderate to fresh
winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh to strong at
night Thu and Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

East of 65W, a cold front extends from north of the area to 32N40W
to 29N49W continuing as stationary to near 28N64W. Scattered
showers are possible on either side of the front. Moderate to
fresh S-SW winds are possible north of 29N and east of the front,
with moderate to fresh N-NE winds north of the front. Seas are
8-12 ft in NW swell north of the front. To the east, 1021 mb high
pressure is near 27N28W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are
noted south of 20N with gentle to moderate flow from 20N-29N. Seas
are 5-8 ft across the waters south of the front.

West of 65W, a warm front extends from 30N71W to 1017 mb low
pressure near Calabash, North Carolina, then continuing south-
southwest as a stationary front to 1020 mb low pressure east of
Amelia Island, Florida near 31N80W, to across the northern Florida
Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring north of 29N and west of 68W. Patchy dense fog will be
possible in the coastal waters from near Melbourne, Florida
northward through early Wed. Mainly moderate return flow prevails
north of 23N and west of 65W, with moderate to fresh trades south
of 23N. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft west of 65W in residual northerly
swell, except to 8 ft near 30N65W and 3 ft or less west of the
Bahamas.

The front and attendant low pressure areas will move N out of the
area this evening. The front will move back into the region as a
cold front early on Wed, and exit the SW N Atlantic waters Wed
night. Strong high pressure northeast of the area will support
fresh to strong winds between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos as
well as in the approaches of the Windward Passage into the
weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
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