[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Feb 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10
feet, are present, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from 11N
to 12N between 74W and 76W. The wind speeds will slow down to
less than gale-force by Wednesday morning, and then return to
gale-force around midnight on Thursday. Please, refer to the
following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 06N10W, to 03N20W, and to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues
from 02N23W, to 01N30W, and to the Equator along 37W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 02N to 06N between 30W and 37W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 32N77W to 31N79W. The front becomes
stationary at 31N79W, and it continues to NE Florida near
Daytona Beach, curving to Apalachicola in Florida, to 28N90W in
the north central Gulf of Mexico and to 28N94W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N to 29N
between the west coast of Florida and 88W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 25N southward from 93W eastward. Areas of
low clouds and patchy dense fog are in the coastal plains and
coastal waters from Texas to Florida

The current nearly stationary front that is in the NE part of
the Gulf of Mexico will diminish on Wednesday morning. Areas of
fog prevail in the northern Gulf of Mexico, due to very warm
moist air that is on top of the cooler waters. Fog will continue
to be possible into the late part of the week. A cold front will
move off the coast on Thursday. The front will reach from the
Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche on Friday, where it will
stall through Saturday evening. Strong to near gale-force winds
will affect the far western Gulf of Mexico from early Friday
into Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, everywhere in the Caribbean Sea.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

High pressure to the north of the Caribbean Sea will continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds in the central and portions
of the SW Caribbean through Sun night. Gale-force winds will
pulse off the coast of Colombia tonight and on Wednesday night,
with near gale-force wind conditions prevailing into Fri night.
Moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to
fresh to strong at night from Thursday into Friday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb low pressure center is near 34N75W. A warm front
continues from the low pressure center to 33N70W and 31N65W. A
cold front continues from the low pressure center, through
32N77W to 31N79W. The front becomes stationary at 31N79W, and it
continues to NE Florida near Daytona Beach, curving to
Apalachicola in Florida, to 28N90W in the north central Gulf of
Mexico and to 28N94W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong covers the waters that are from 30N to
33N between 61W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and other isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 27N
northward from 57W westward.

A cold front passes through 32N37W to 30N43W, 28N50W, and to
27N59W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 150 nm to the SE of the cold front between 30W
and 40W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are from 26N northward between 40W and 60W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean,
on either side of the cold front. A 1027 mb high pressure center
is near 35N59W. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 27N31W.

The current stationary front, from 31N79W to Daytona Beach in
Florida, will meander tonight then move to the north of the area
on Wednesday, as a warm front. Patchy fog can be expected near
this boundary. The front will transition to a cold front on
Wednesday night, and move into the area again on Thursday.
Strong high pressure to the northeast of the area will support
fresh to strong winds between Hispaniola, and the Turks and
Caicos, and in the approaches of the Windward Passage, through
the end of the week.

$$
mt/sk
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