[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091809
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea
across the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will
support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean into the weekend. Winds will pulse to gale force within
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight, and again Wed
night. Near gale-force winds are also expected Thu night. Seas
will build to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please refer to
the latest High Seas Forecast product in the following website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N21W to 01N28W. The ITCZ continues from 01N28W to
the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. An area of cyclonic winds
associated with a 1014 mb low along the monsoon trough is
located near 04N21W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 01S-10N between 17W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, the boundary that was previously a warm front
has stalled off the coast of the Florida panhandle. The
stationary front now stretches across the entire northern Gulf
adjacent to the coastline. A 1017 mb low is along the boundary
off the coast of Pensacola, FL, near 30N87W. East of the low,
winds are fresh from the south. West of the low, winds
transition from moderate northerlies to gentle trades and cover
the western half of the basin. Bands of scattered moderate
convection are east of the low and stretch from 27N to the coast
of Florida near Panama City. Elsewhere in the basin, a surface
trough extends from 26N92W to Veracruz, Mexico. No significant
precipitation is associated with this feature.

The low and the boundary will lift N of the area later today.
Moist southerly flow may allow areas of fog across the northern
Gulf through mid week. Looking ahead, another front will move
off the Texas coast by late Thu and reach from the Florida Big
Bend to the Bay of Campeche Fri evening, where it will stall
through Sat evening. Strong to near gale force winds will affect
the far western Gulf Fri into Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trades continue to dominate the central
Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas of 8 to
10 ft can be found in the central Caribbean while 3 to 6 ft are
observed in the eastern and western Caribbean. Dry conditions
prevail, aside from isolated fast moving showers embedded in the
trade wind flow in the NE Caribbean.

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds over the central and
portions of the SW Caribbean through Sat night. Gales will pulse
nightly through Wed night off the coast of Colombia, with near
gale conditions prevailing the rest of the week. Fresh to
locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras for
the latter half of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is located from 32N47W to 29N56W. It then becomes
stationary and continues west the coast northern coast of
Florida near Jacksonville. As of 1500 UTC a low formed over the
waters adjacent to Jacksonville along this boundary. Scattered
moderate convection is located N of the boundary between Florida
and 70W. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are occurring N of the
front transitioning to ESE west of 70W. Generally gentle to
moderate trades are south of the boundary. High pressure of 1024
mb centered near 29N37W dominates much of the rest of the basin,
producing moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropics south
of 23N. Seas across the trade wind belt are running 7 to 9 ft in
north swell.

The front will continue to gradually lift today and move out of
the area by early this evening. The front will transition back
to a cold front tonight N of the area, and its tail will move
across the northern waters Wed. Strong high pressure northeast
of the area will support fresh to strong winds between
Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos as well as in the approaches of
the Windward Passage into Fri.


$$
Mora
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