[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Feb 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea
across the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will
support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean into the weekend. Winds will pulse to gale force within
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia early this morning, tonight,
and again Wed night. Near gale- force winds are also expected Thu
night. Seas will build to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please
refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product in the following
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
06N10W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 00N48W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N
between 17W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted
from 00N to 08N between 30W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A previously stalled front is now lifting north as a warm front
from N of Tampa Bay to the mouth of the Mississippi River, then
along the Louisiana coast. A 1016 mb low pressure has formed along
the boundary near 29N90W. N of the warm front and east of the low
pressure, scattered moderate convection has developed from
offshore SE Louisiana to the coast of the Florida Panhandle. Winds
to the east of a surface trough about 120 nm W of the Yucatan
Peninsula, otherwise gentle to moderate winds prevail over the
basin. Areas of dense fog have formed along the continental shelf
waters off the Florida and Texas coasts.

The low and warm front will lift N of the area today. Moist
southerly flow may allow areas of fog across the northern Gulf
through mid week. Looking ahead, another front will move off the
Texas coast by late Thu and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the
Bay of Campeche Fri evening, where it will stall through Sat
evening. Strong to near gale force winds will affect the far
western Gulf Fri into Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trades continue to dominate the central Caribbean,
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas of 8 to 10 ft can be
found in the central Caribbean while 3 to 6 ft are observed in
the eastern and western Caribbean. Dry conditions prevail, aside
from isolated fast moving showers embedded in the trade wind flow
in the NE Caribbean.

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will continue to support
fresh to strong trade winds over the central and portions of the
SW Caribbean through Sat night. Gales will pulse nightly through
Wed night off the coast of Colombia, with near gale conditions
prevailing the rest of the week. Fresh to locally strong winds
will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras for the latter half of the
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is located from 32N50W to 28N65W. It then becomes
stationary to the west and continues to near Melbourne, Florida.
Scattered moderate convection is located N of the boundary between
Florida and 75W. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are occurring N of
the front with generally gentle to moderate E to SE winds to the
south. High pressure of 1023 mb centered near 29N37W dominates
much of the rest of the basin, producing moderate to fresh
tradewinds across the tropics south of 23N. Seas across the
tradewind belt are running 7 to 9 ft in north swell.

The front will lift north as a warm front this morning,
then move out of the area by this evening. The front will
transition back to a cold front tonight N of the area, and its
tail will move across the northern waters Wed. Strong high
pressure northeast of the area will support fresh to strong winds
between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos as well as in the
approaches of the Windward Passage into Fri.

$$
KONARIK
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