[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Feb 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea
combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Fri.
Winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia tonight and Tue night. Near gale-force winds are also
expected Wed night. Seas will build to 12 ft with the strongest
winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product in
the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
06N10W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to the mouth of
the Amazon near 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 13W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Early this morning, a stationary front exists from near Key West,
Florida, to 23N95W. Convection previously associated with this
front has generally diminished, although a few showers persist
offshore South Florida. A surface trough extends NE from the
northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula to around 22N87W. Convection
near this trough also has dissipated overnight. North of the
frontal boundary, moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail, with
gentle winds S of the front.

The front will lift N as a warm front today and be north of the
area late tonight. Moist southerly flow may allow areas of fog
across the northwest and north central Gulf through mid week.
Looking ahead, another front will move off the Texas coast by late
Thu and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche by late Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, see the Special Features section above for details on
pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds are noted across most of the east and
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are observed from
the Gulf of Honduras north to the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 8 to
12 ft can be found in the central Caribbean while 3 to 6 ft Are
observed in the eastern and western Caribbean. A cluster of
thunderstorms has developed just SE of Jamaica, otherwise dry
conditions prevail, aside from isolated fast moving showers
embedded in the trade wind flow in the NE Caribbean.

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean into Fri
night. Winds will pulse to gale force nightly through Tue off the
coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N68W to the NW Bahamas, then stalls
to near Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A band of thunderstorms
stretches along the cold frontal portion of the boundary, with
scattered showers along the front from the Bahamas to the Florida
coast. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh SW winds are
occurring, with fresh NE winds behind the front. High pressure of
1027 mb centered near 30N40W dominates much of the rest of the
basin, causing gentle to moderate winds N of 24N. To the south,
moderate to fresh trades prevail, along with seas of 7 to 10 ft.

The entire front will gradually stall today, then lift north as a
warm front tonight, and out of the region Tue. The next cold
front may not move off the SE U.S. coast until Thu or Fri.

$$
KONARIK
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net