[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080511
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Feb 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea
combined with the Colombian/Panamaniam low will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Fri.
Winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia tonight and Mon night. Near gale-force winds are also
expected Tue night. Seas will build to 11 or 12 ft with the
strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast
product in the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
06N10W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to the mouth of
the Amazon near 00N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 01S-05N between 14W-30W. Similar
convection is from 00N-04N between 30W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, the cold front has stalled and extends from
Marco Island, Florida to near 25N81W to 22N94W and begins to
weaken near 22N97W north of Victoria, Mexico. A band of showers
with embedded thunderstorms is associated with the front E of 86W.
Ahead of the front, a surface trough has developed over the
Yucatan Peninsula where some thunderstorms are flaring up in the
northern coast. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds follow
the front forecast to lift northward as a warm front Mon and move
north of the Gulf waters by Mon night. Moist southerly flow may
allow areas of fog to develop across the northwest and north
central Gulf through mid-week.

The stationary front will lift N as a warm front Mon and be
north of the area Mon night. Moist southerly flow may allow areas
of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf through mid-
week. Looking ahead, another front will move off the Texas coast
by late Thu and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to
southern Veracruz, Mexico, by late Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, see the Special Features section above for details on
pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds are noted across most of the east
and central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are observed
from the Gulf of Honduras north to the Yucatan Channel. Seas of
8 to 12 ft can be found in the central Caribbean while 3 to 6 ft
Are observed in the eastern and western Caribbean. High pressure
north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean through the middle of
this week.

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean into Fri
night. Winds will pulse to gale force nightly through Tue off the
coast of Colombia. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind
flow, will continue to enhance across the region producing
isolated to scattered passing showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 29N72W southwest to 27N78W, then stalls
near West Palm Beach, Florida and continues across the Florida
Peninsula. A band of showers and embedded thunderstorms is along
the front north of 28N. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh
S-SW winds ahead of the front and fresh to strong behind the
front and N of 28N. Strong to near gale force winds are also noted
along 32N E of the front to about 61W.

The cold front will stall from Bermuda to around Miami, Florida,
Mon. The front will then lift north as a warm front and out of
the region Tue. Looking ahead, a weak front will stall between NE
Florida and Bermuda by Wed, and will lift north of the area Thu
and Fri.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the
influence of a 1029 mb high pressure located near 32N44W. Patches
of low-level moisture are noted mainly N of 15N while transverse
high clouds, associated with a tropical jet stream, cover the
waters between northern South America and the west coast of
Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands.

$$
Torres
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